While Detroit fans have been daydreaming about a wild offer sheet run at Connor Bedard, the more realistic threat may be coming the other way.
Elliott Friedman said on his podcast that the Carolina Hurricanes are weighing an offer sheet, and he believes Detroit defenseman Simon Edvinsson could be the target. The logic is simple enough: Carolina wants to add a defenseman, and Friedman thinks Edvinsson would be a strong fit in their system.
Edvinsson is a restricted free agent, and the gap between the two sides on a new contract is still unknown. AFP Analytics projected him on a long-term deal with an average annual value of $8.7 million, but with the way this summer has unfolded, that number could climb closer to $10 million.
Carolina’s cap situation gives them some room to work with. The Hurricanes have about $10 million available, though they are also considering moving Alexander Nikishin if the receiving team takes Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s $4.25 million AAV contract. If that happens, the question becomes whether Carolina would be willing to push past the $10 million mark for Edvinsson.
Detroit is in position to handle the threat. The Red Wings have $18 million in cap space, and in a DHN story Sunday, it was noted they should keep $12 million, or perhaps more, reserved in case Edvinsson gets an offer sheet.
The compensation would be steep. A deal between $10 million and $11 million would cost two first-round picks, a second-round pick and a third-round pick. Anything above $11,939,166 would trigger a price tag of four first-round picks.
Even with that kind of draft-pick cost, Detroit would almost certainly match. Carolina is the defending Stanley Cup champion and still a strong team, which means those first-rounders would likely land late in the round, where the odds of finding a regular player are roughly 55%.
If the Red Wings do earmark $12 million to protect Edvinsson, that leaves them with about $6 million to spend. And even if they moved Dylan Larkin for draft picks, something Steve Yzerman does not want to do, they would still only have $14 million in cap space. That still would not be enough to make the kind of offer sheet to Bedard that would force him to leave for Detroit.
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