Ben Chiarot and Moritz Seider keep ending up on the same side of the blue line, and the numbers keep telling the same story: the pairing looks tidy on paper, but it hasn’t really clicked for the Detroit Red Wings.
The fit makes sense at a glance. Chiarot and Seider give Detroit a left-right setup, and both bring size and physicality.
But the Red Wings have spent enough time trying it to know the reality is messier than the theory. Since Chiarot arrived in Detroit in 2022-23, the two have repeatedly been put together, and the results have never quite matched the idea.
At five-on-five as of November 3, Natural Stat Trick shows Seider and Chiarot have logged close to 170 minutes together, the most of any Detroit defensive pairing. Their 51.49% Corsi For Percentage and 50.28% expected Goals For Percentage suggest a group that’s basically surviving rather than driving play.
The split underneath that pairing is where things get interesting. Chiarot has posted a 52.07% CF% and a 51.81% xG%, which is a step up from previous seasons with the Wings.
Seider, meanwhile, has been even better at 54.13% CF% and 52.52% xG%. The gap isn’t huge, but it reinforces the bigger point: Seider is carrying the heavier load on Detroit’s back end.
That theme shows up again in Hockey Stats’ Box WAR numbers from the Red Wings’ 5-3 win over the Florida Panthers on November 2. WAR, as the group describes it, is an “…estimate of the value that a player has added in a given season.”
It’s not the whole picture, but it does underline how much Seider is doing compared with everyone else on the blue line. He leads Detroit’s defensemen by a comfortable margin, while Chiarot sits at -0.27 WAR.
The workload itself is part of the issue. Asking both players to handle the minutes and responsibilities they’ve been given is a lot, but Seider’s ability to keep producing in that role stands out even more. He’s being asked to do the kind of work that belongs to a top defenseman, and he’s doing it while often skating alongside a partner who seems pushed beyond his ideal role.
Another stat source, Benchrates, had Seider sixth among defensemen in five-on-five defense contribution, with 844.1K. The list ahead of him included Thomas Harley, Quinn Hughes, Brett Pesce, Rasmus Dahlin and MacKenzie Weegar.
There’s also the wrinkle of Simon Edvinsson, who remains unsigned and would seem to offer a top-pairing option. Albert Johansson’s injury made things even trickier for Seider, though Johansson had already been moved to the second pair before getting hurt. And when Johansson was with Seider, the results were better: a 63.21% CF% and a 66.10% xGF%, according to the same Natural Stat Trick criteria.
No explanation was given by Todd McLellan for why Johansson was moved down the lineup. It may have been an attempt to steady another pair, with the idea that Seider could handle whoever was placed next to him. But the numbers suggest Detroit had a better-looking option already in house.
That’s what makes this so frustrating for the Red Wings. Seider is playing like a top-pairing defenseman and is already in the Norris Trophy conversation this season, yet he’s still being asked to make a less-than-ideal partnership work while a strong alternative remains unsigned.
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For interested teams, that approach has created a waiting game, and it is one that could drag on a while longer if Detroit keeps holding out for the ideal package. Edvinssons future remains unsettled, Larkins name continues to circulate, and the longer the Red Wings stay patient, the more the rest of the league has to wonder whether anything is actually close. [Read more 🡒]