NHL Playoff Picture: Maple Leafs, Panthers Facing Steep Climb Post-Olympic Break
As the NHL hits pause for the Olympic break, the playoff picture is starting to take shape-and for some teams, that shape is looking more like a question mark than a postseason bracket.
Let’s start with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Right now, their odds of making the playoffs sit at just 5.2%.
To put that in perspective, Angelenos have a better chance of seeing rain on any given day in Southern California (9.8%). That’s not just bad-it’s bordering on improbable.
For a franchise that continues to carry the weight of expectations and a passionate fanbase, this kind of outlook entering the final stretch of the season is far from ideal.
And it’s not just Toronto. The defending back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are also in unfamiliar territory.
Their playoff chances are sitting at 13.2%. That’s only slightly better than the odds of flipping three heads-or three tails-in a row with a single coin (12.5%).
For a team that’s been the gold standard the past two seasons, this is a dramatic fall from grace.
Zooming out across the league, four Canadian teams-the Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets, Calgary Flames, and Vancouver Canucks-are all sitting with playoff probabilities under 5.3%. For context, rolling an 11 or 12 with a pair of dice gives you an 8.33% shot. So yes, the numbers are that bleak.
But while some teams are on the outside looking in, others are sitting pretty. Ten clubs have playoff odds north of 80%, including the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild, Utah Mammoth, Anaheim Ducks, Tampa Bay Lightning, Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, and Carolina Hurricanes. At this point, if any of those squads miss the postseason, it would be seen as a full-on collapse.
That leaves us with roughly six playoff spots still very much up for grabs. The final stretch of the season is going to be a dogfight, with bubble teams needing to bring playoff-level intensity night in and night out just to stay in the hunt.
Red Wings Notes: Healing Up and Gearing Up
The Olympic break couldn’t have come at a better time for the Detroit Red Wings. Banged up and looking to reset, the Wings are hoping the time off will help them get healthy and come out swinging once the league resumes play. A strong start post-break will be crucial if they want to hold onto their current playoff position and avoid slipping into that chaotic middle tier.
Meanwhile, in the AHL, the Grand Rapids Griffins-Detroit’s top affiliate-have cooled off after a historic start to their season. They dropped a 3-0 decision to the Charlotte Checkers on Friday despite a 33-save performance from goalie Michal Postava.
The Griffins are 5-5-1 in their last 11 games, but still boast an impressive 34-7-2-1 record overall. Even with the recent dip, they’ve positioned themselves as one of the top teams in the league.
Around the League
- Former Red Wings prospect Filip Larsson is heading back to Sweden, signing with Leksands IF in the SHL after leaving the Pittsburgh Penguins organization.
- Artemi Panarin, never one to shy away from a good quip, joked that the reason he didn’t sign with Detroit was because he “hates Patrick Kane.” Whether he meant it or not, it’s the kind of locker-room banter that reminds us hockey players are just as human-and humorous-as the rest of us.
- In Boston, the Bruins will be without forward Pavel Zacha for the Olympics due to injury. It’s a tough blow for both the player and his national team, but Boston will be hoping the time off helps him recover for the NHL stretch run.
The Olympic break offers a brief pause in the grind, but for teams like the Maple Leafs and Panthers, the clock is ticking. The margin for error is razor-thin, and every point will matter when the puck drops again. Buckle up-it’s going to be a wild finish.