Dylan Larkin’s trade request has sparked plenty of guesswork, but the crowd at Kalshi keeps circling back to one destination: Minnesota.
On Kalshi’s hockey board, 75% of players are saying Larkin is staying in Detroit. Among the group that believes he will be moved, though, 72% have pegged the Minnesota Wild as the likeliest landing spot. The Philadelphia Flyers are the only other team listed, and just two percent of users are backing a “Yes” position there.
Kalshi’s prediction market works like a betting exchange, where users buy and sell shares tied to future outcomes. The share price is supposed to reflect the market’s view of how likely the event is to happen.
Larkin’s situation is complicated by his no-trade clause, but he has told the Red Wings he would accept a move to the Minnesota Wild, Vegas Golden Knights or Florida Panthers. Mlive.com reported that Larkin would also accept a trade to the Dallas Stars, though that was disputed by a Detroit Free Press report saying he hasn’t change his list.
That’s why the Flyers number stands out so much. It’s difficult to see what would be driving a wager there unless someone believes they know something the rest of the market doesn’t.
The Minnesota buzz, though, is where the real debate lives. Detroit and Minnesota already discussed a deal and couldn’t find common ground. The Red Wings weren’t sold on the younger players the Wild were willing to offer, and Detroit wants at least one proven player included in any return.
One thing has changed since those talks: Steve Yzerman is no longer the team’s general manager. He is only handling the day-to-day operation until a new director of hockey operations is hired.
That shift is probably why some people are still willing to believe a deal could happen. A new Red Wings regime might be more open to a package built around draft picks and prospects.
Cap space adds another wrinkle. Three of the teams on Larkin’s list do not currently have room for his $8.7 million salary.
According to puckpedia.com, Minnesota has $1.15 million in cap space left, the Panthers have just $34,000 and the Golden Knights are $8.66 million over the cap ceiling. A deal would likely require the Wild to move money out, or for Detroit to absorb a significant contract.
The Red Wings, for now, do not appear to be deep into the search for their next general manager. There have been no reports of interviews or of teams granting permission for their employees to speak with Detroit.
There is some business being handled, though. Goalie Carter Gylander recently signed a new contract. Red Wings management also attended the Junior Summer Showcase in Windsor, and assistant GM Shawn Horcoff, who is also the Grand Rapids Griffins GM, recently saw the Griffins sign goalie Jonathan Lemieux to an AHL contract.
And while the Larkin speculation keeps rolling, FanDuel Sports has Detroit at +235 to make the playoffs, which works out to a 29.8% probability. Five or six teams usually bounce back into the postseason after missing it the year before, but that trend hasn’t helped the Red Wings for a decade.
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