Jalen Duren is staring at a familiar kind of gamble with the Detroit Pistons, and Dennis Schroder’s name hangs over it like a warning sign.
Duren is reportedly pushing for more than $40 million per year, while Detroit has come in around $35 million. That’s not an enormous gap on paper, but it does show where the Pistons’ line is drawn: they want Duren’s value to match what he’s shown in the playoffs. The team also has a practical reason for staying firm, since it’s trying to keep Duren’s salary below the 25 percent threshold so it can still extend Ausar Thompson and keep building out the roster.
There’s always the qualifying offer route if Duren wants to play hardball. He could take that path, hit unrestricted free agency after next season, and hope the market opens up. And according to the reporting, there could be a max offer waiting from the Kings if he gets there.
But that’s where the risk starts to outweigh the upside.
Schroder is the clearest example. In 2021, after being traded to the Lakers, he was offered a four-year, $84 million extension and turned it down, betting he could cash in more after a strong playoff run.
Instead, the playoffs went badly, the bigger payday never arrived, and he wound up taking a one-year deal worth just over $6 million. Even later, the Kings only paid him $15 million a year, leaving a massive chunk of money behind.
That’s the exact trap Duren is flirting with now. If he accepts the Pistons’ offer, he locks in major money.
If he turns it down, the best-case scenario is that he takes the qualifying offer, puts together a huge season, and lands a full max somewhere else. Even then, the financial upside is basically just breaking even.
The real prize would be the ego boost of seeing “max deal” attached to his name.
The downside, though, is obvious. A rough season or an injury could send him down the same road Schroder took, with the big offer gone for good.
That’s why the cautionary list keeps getting longer: Dennis Schroder, Jonathan Kuminga, Nerlens Noel, DeMarcus Cousins. Quentin Grimes is the rare recent example of a player who made the qualifying offer work, but the source makes clear that Duren would be taking on a much bigger risk than Grimes did.
If Duren wants to roll the dice and drag this into training camp, that’s his call. But the warning is right there in front of him: the money on the table now can disappear fast, and it may not come back.
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