Jalen Duren’s offseason has taken a turn the Pistons can’t love. Between his hefty contract demands and the way his game fell off in the postseason a few months ago, he’s created the kind of leverage problem that gets ugly fast. The warning sign is Julius Randle, a player whose regular-season production has never quite translated when the games get tighter.
Randle’s playoff résumé still stands out for all the wrong reasons. In 2021, when he earned his first All-Star nod and helped push the Knicks to the playoffs as the No. 4 seed, his numbers cratered. He went from 24 points per game in the regular season to 18 in the playoffs, while his shooting nosedived to 33% from the field and 28% from three.
That kind of drop has a familiar feel for Pistons fans now. Duren posted 19.5 points per game in the regular season last season, then slid to 10 in the playoffs. His efficiency took a hit too, falling from 65% shooting to 51%.
The common thread is simple: opponents found the buttons to push. Against Randle, the Hawks steered him toward the baseline and swarmed him whenever he tried to attack the middle. That adjustment has followed him through his entire playoff career and helped limit both his postseason value and his earning power.
Duren ran into a different but equally damaging set of problems. The Magic and Cavaliers crowded him on catches out of the pick-and-roll, shrinking the space he had in the short roll.
They also had a read on his right-to-left pickup, the move that had been so effective in the regular season. Once that comfort disappeared, his production went with it.
Randle’s case shows how costly that kind of postseason weakness can become. Even after making three All-Star teams in four years with the Knicks, teams were still hesitant to hand him a full max contract because the same playoff flaws kept showing up. He has spent years settling for less lucrative deals because the tape keeps telling the same story.
Detroit clearly wants a different ending for Duren. The Pistons can’t keep leaning on Cade Cunningham to solve everything if they don’t have a dependable second option when the playoffs arrive. Duren’s postseason drop is a big reason the team has been reluctant to commit to a long-term payday.
There is still a path back. Duren can improve his standing by returning on a more reasonable deal, ideally for fewer years, and by showing he can do more when defenses tighten up. For Detroit, that postseason performance is the real test.
But the pressure is on now. Two teams have already shown how to take away what Duren does best. If he doesn’t add more counters, whether that means new scoring moves or better playmaking, he risks sliding into the same pattern that has defined Julius Randle’s career: regular-season success, playoff disappointment, and a shrinking market.
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