The Pistons have bigger questions than just the race for the Eastern Conference’s top spot, and Jalen Duren sits right in the middle of them.
Detroit is trying to navigate a tougher landscape with the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, and New York Knicks all reshaped or improved. But the issues aren’t only coming from outside.
J.B. Bickerstaff also has work to do inside his own locker room, and the team’s success still hinges on how the group functions around Cade Cunningham, who is set up for a big revenge run.
Duren remains one of the most important pieces in that picture.
The first concern is not on the floor at all. Detroit offered Duren a five-year deal worth $190 million, while he is eligible for an extension that could reach $287 million.
His camp wants at least $200 million, and with fewer than 40 days left before the season begins, there still isn’t a deal. That stalemate hangs over everything.
If Duren is going to push that price higher, the projections say he has the numbers to make a case. Using Basketball Reference Per 36 Minutes data and assuming he stays at the 28.2 minutes per game he got last season, he projects at 21.7 points, 12.9 field goal attempts, a 65.7 field-goal percentage, 36.0 percent from three, 74.2 percent at the line, 3.0 assists, 13.7 rebounds, 1.0 steal, 1.2 blocks, and 2.3 turnovers.
The defensive profile still looks strong. Duren is projected to beat the average center in those categories, and the Pistons could see him match his career-high average of 0.8 steals.
His rebound number is expected to land at 10.7, though the projection also leaves room for him to go beyond that and potentially match his 11-rebound season from 2023-24. Blocks come in at 0.9, which puts him in line with most centers.
There are also signs his ball security and foul shooting could be better. He is projected to keep turnovers to 1.8 per game, which would help Detroit keep the offense flowing through him and Cunningham.
At the line, the numbers point to a jump after his rough 67.4% free throw mark during the Pistons’ 2025-26 NBA Playoffs run. The projection has him hitting 74.2% of his free throws.
That efficiency is what makes Duren such a dangerous traditional center. If he’s finishing 65.7% of his shots, he becomes a problem for opposing defenses almost immediately. Even the usual Hack-A-Shaq approach starts to lose its punch when he’s also projected to make 74.2% of his free throws while drawing nearly six attempts a night, at 5.915 per game.
The strangest part of the projection is the three-point line. Basketball Reference has Duren jumping from 0% to 36.0% from deep in 2026-27.
He hasn’t attempted a three in the Pistons’ 2024-25 or 2025-26 regular seasons, and his last try came on April 5, 2024, in a 108-90 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. He has never made a three in his career.
There is at least one quirky team stat tied to that. Detroit is 16.7% when Duren takes a three, having lost five of the six games in which he tried to stretch the floor. The lone win came against the Portland Trail Blazers on February 8, 2024, in a 128-122 overtime game where Cunningham, Duren, and Jaden Ivey combined for 76 points.
Still, the bigger issue is how all of this fits into Detroit’s ceiling. Duren’s projected workload is only 10.1 field goal attempts per game, and that may be tied to the arrival of John Collins as another rim-runner.
The additions of Isaiah Joe, Taurean Prince, and Gary Harris also point to fewer touches for Duren. His scoring projection drops to 17 points per game, which is not enough for someone trying to function as the clear second star on a true Eastern Conference contender, and it may not be enough to keep him in the All-NBA Third-Team conversation either.
Detroit needs another engine next to Cunningham, and Duren is still the obvious answer. The question is whether the Pistons believe he is worth $200 million to keep in that role.