The Boston Celtics hit a roadblock on Wednesday when the Denver Nuggets snapped their four-game winning streak with a decisive 103-84 victory at Ball Arena. This setback leaves the Celtics at 38-20 for the season, falling short of the Hall of Fame coach Phil Jackson’s benchmark for title contenders.
Back in 2008, Jackson introduced the idea that a team must win 40 games before losing 20 to be considered a true contender. While this might seem a bit arbitrary, history backs him up.
Most NBA champions have met this criterion, giving Jackson’s “40-20 rule” some weight. In 2026, only three teams fit the bill.
- Detroit Pistons: 43-14
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 45-15
- San Antonio Spurs: 42-16
Last season, only the Celtics, Thunder, and Cavaliers managed this feat, with the Thunder ultimately clinching the 2025 NBA title. This means that out of 46 championship teams since the 1979-80 season, 41 have adhered to Jackson’s rule.
The exceptions? The 1994-95 Houston Rockets, 1998-99 San Antonio Spurs, 2003-04 Detroit Pistons, 2005-06 Miami Heat, and the 2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks.
The Spurs’ 1998-99 season was shortened by a lockout, and they went 37-13 in 50 games. In a regular season, they likely would have met the 40-win mark.
So, if we account for that anomaly, 91.1% of title-winning teams have conformed to Jackson’s rule. This season, it seems the Pistons, Thunder, and Spurs are the ones to watch.
The Thunder were on a historic pace, starting the season 24-1, but injuries have slowed them down. Still, they’re poised to win 60+ games again and are favorites in the West.
Leading the charge is reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s putting up 31.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game. His stellar play keeps him in the MVP conversation.
Alongside Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder boast young stars like Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. Williams, an All-NBA and All-Defensive team member last year, has battled injuries this season. If healthy, the Thunder are a formidable playoff opponent, with a strong supporting cast including Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso.
However, the Spurs have been a thorn in their side, winning the season series 4-1. Victor Wembanyama is a big reason why.
Averaging 24.0 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks per game, Wembanyama is a defensive powerhouse and improving offensively. His teammates, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, and All-Star De’Aaron Fox, provide strong support.
The Spurs’ challenge is their playoff inexperience. Can they break the mold and make a deep run? With Wembanyama, anything is possible.
Turning to the Pistons, they hold the NBA’s best record. Despite limited playoff experience, they reached the postseason in 2025, with Cade Cunningham emerging as an All-Star. This season, Cunningham is averaging 25.3 points and 9.8 assists, making him an MVP contender alongside Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama.
Cunningham is backed by 2026 All-Star Jalen Duren and a balanced mix of veterans and young talent like Tobias Harris and Ausar Thompson. The Pistons are favorites in the East.
While these three teams are strong contenders, don’t count out the Nuggets. With a 37-22 record, they’ve been hit hard by injuries.
But if they’re healthy come playoff time, they could surprise everyone. They pushed the Thunder to seven games last postseason, proving they can compete with the best.
The 40-20 rule may not favor the Nuggets, but history is made to be rewritten. As the season progresses, we’ll see if they can join the ranks of those who defied the odds.