Take a look around the NFC right now, and it’s not hard to see why the Lions can still talk themselves into a real season.
Through six weeks, the conference has one obvious heavyweight: the San Francisco 49ers, who are still undefeated and looking sharp on both sides of the ball. The Minnesota Vikings are unbeaten too, but there’s still a cloud hanging over the way their offense functions while it’s being led by Kyler Murray.
And even with the NFC North all sitting on winning records, every team in the division has its flaws. As a whole, the NFC just doesn’t look especially daunting.
That gives Detroit a real opening. The Lions have been aggravating at times, sure, but they’ve also been improving week by week.
After the bye, they should come back healthier with Cade Mays and Brian Branch available. On offense, Jared Goff is off to an MVP-caliber start, and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has made a strong first impression in his debut season.
If that still feels a little too optimistic, the numbers help build the case. Four metrics, in particular, paint Detroit as closer to contention than some might think.
Start with offensive DVOA. According to Pride of Detroit’s Jeremy Reisman, the Lions sit 10th in the league there right now.
There’s still room to grow in both the run game and the passing game, even if it’s odd that they rank higher in rushing despite Jared Goff having zero interceptions. Better starts and stronger efficiency on third downs should help push that number higher.
And once Mays is back, Detroit could be rolling with a healthier offense that blocks better in the run game down the stretch.
The defensive side doesn’t have quite as much to brag about, but the pass rush does. The Lions are winning on pass rush 60 percent of the time, which ranks third in the NFL.
That matters. Elite pass rush is one of the cleanest signs of a team built for the stretch run, because it changes the rhythm of games and lets defenses control tempo.
The Seattle Seahawks just showed that, and before them the Philadelphia Eagles did it too. Detroit’s front is in a strong spot.
Another number that jumps off the page is EPA per play. The Lions are third in the NFL at .16, trailing only the 49ers and the Buffalo Bills.
That’s a better snapshot of real offensive impact than DVOA in some ways, and it lines up well with what the eye test says. Detroit’s passing EPA/play is better than its rushing EPA/play, which fits the way the offense has looked: some slow starts, a less explosive run game than expected, and a shaky third-down conversion rate, but still one of the most productive attacks in football.
If they clean up even a couple of those issues, there’s a strong chance they finish the year atop this category.
Then there’s the remaining schedule. Detroit already played one of the easier slates in the league and came out of five games at 3-2.
One loss came against the red-hot Bills, and another came against the Carolina Panthers and their very strong passing game. The losses were rough, but they came in a context that matters.
From here, the Lions have the sixth-hardest remaining schedule based on opponent records. Their toughest games left are listed as against the NFC North, the New England Patriots, and the New York Giants.
That sounds intimidating on paper, but it may not be as harsh as it looks. Detroit is getting healthier, and the Packers’ defense still hasn’t faced a quarterback as good as Goff this season.
With the NFC looking the way it does, the path ahead feels workable for a division push and at least a postseason berth.
In Other News...
Lions May Have Found The Real Key To Containing Packers Deep Shots
The Packers deep-ball game has been one of the more revealing parts of their offense so far, and the numbers point to a pretty clear pattern. Green Bay is far more willing to take those high-risk shots when the game is already tilting in its favor, especially in comfortable down-and-distance spots, while Detroits own deep passing has not shown the same kind of situational split.
For the Lions, that makes the early minutes feel especially important. If they can get on the board first and force Green Bay out of its preferred script, they may be able to blunt one of the Packers most dangerous weapons before it starts to snowball. The challenge is easier to identify than to solve, but the path is there if Detroit can control the scoreboard and make the Packers throw with more pressure on them. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Just Got A Real Opening In The NFC North Race
The NFC North race has suddenly opened up a bit for Detroit, and the reason has as much to do with the calendar as it does with what the Lions have already done on the field. Even though Minnesota is still ahead in the standings, Tankathons strength-of-schedule rankings point to a more favorable path for the Lions down the stretch, with several upcoming games that should give them a chance to keep stacking wins after the bye week.
Detroit still has plenty of work to do, but the matchup mix ahead looks friendlier than what Minnesota is facing. The Lions have divisional games and a handful of contests against teams with losing records on the schedule, while the Vikings are set to deal with a tougher closing stretch against stronger opponents, a setup that could swing the division race before long. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Post-Bye Ceiling May Hinge On One Defensive Starter
The Lions have plenty to like after three wins to open 2026, especially on offense, where the scoring has been rolling along at nearly 33 points per game. The defense has been a different story, giving up almost 30 a night and leaving some real work for the stretch after the bye. As the conversation turns to who can help stabilize things, Jack Campbell is one of the names drawing the most attention after a breakout 2025 season raised the bar for what he can be in the middle of this unit.
Campbell is not the only player the Lions need more from, with Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa also part of the broader push to keep the offense carrying its share while the defense catches up. But the spotlight on Campbell feels especially sharp because the teams post-bye ceiling may depend on a defensive starter who was supposed to be one of its tone-setters. If Detroit is going to turn a good start into something sturdier, the next few weeks should tell the story. [Read more 🡒]