Sunday night’s matchup between the Lions and Panthers has the feel of a game where the touchdown market could do a lot of the heavy lifting.
Detroit heads to Carolina for Week 4 with both offenses producing early. The Lions are seventh in EPA/Play, while the Panthers sit 13th.
Detroit has scored at least 30 points in every game so far, and the total is sitting at 51.5, which tells you the market is expecting points. Carolina, meanwhile, comes in as a home underdog and is trying to bounce back from a Week 3 loss to Cleveland.
There are plenty of options worth circling, but the best place to start is with Sam LaPorta.
LaPorta is healthy and has opened the 2026 season in strong form, catching 14 of 19 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. He has been on the field for 89.9 percent of Detroit’s snaps, which gives him a stable role in a game that should feature plenty of passing.
The Lions have leaned heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs through three weeks, but Jared Goff has already thrown eight touchdowns, and LaPorta remains a steady part of the attack alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown.
This matchup also lines up well for the tight end. Carolina has already allowed three touchdowns to the position this season, including two to Cleveland tight end Harold Fannin Jr. in Week 3.
Detroit’s defense has been leaky enough to create shootouts, giving up 24 or more points in three straight games, and that should keep the passing volume flowing on Sunday night. LaPorta, listed at +185, has long been a red-zone threat after scoring 17 times across his first two seasons before an injury-hit 2025 campaign.
St. Brown is the other Lions pass catcher who belongs in the conversation.
He is tied with Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the NFL lead in red-zone targets with nine through three weeks, and he has turned those looks into eight catches for 41 yards and four scores. He has scored in all three games this season and five times overall, continuing the same red-zone dominance he showed in 2025, when he led the league with 34 red-zone looks.
With Goff already up to eight passing scores and Jaycee Horn sidelined for Carolina, St. Brown looks positioned to keep that streak going, even if the price isn’t especially friendly.
On the Carolina side, Darren Waller stands out as the best touchdown bet.
The Lions have been a mess against tight ends, allowing more touchdowns to the position than any team in the league this season, with six already surrendered. Juwan Johnson, Dalton Kincaid and Kenyon Sadiq have all found the end zone against Detroit’s secondary, which has been further weakened by the absences of Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. Detroit ranks 27th in EPA/Pass and has given up 29 catches for 351 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends in 2026.
Waller is coming off a season-high five catches for 51 yards on eight targets in Week 3, and he scored twice in Week 2 against Atlanta. He also played more than 50 percent of the snaps in that game, his first time hitting that mark all season.
With Jalen Coker dealing with a quad injury, his usage could rise again. At +235, he’s the value play in a game that looks set up for scoring.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Panthers Hit With New NFL Discipline Right Before Lions Game
The Panthers are dealing with a little added noise before their matchup with the Lions, as the NFL handed down fines to three Carolina players for penalties committed in Week 3 against Cleveland. A.J. Dillon was fined for a facemask, Lee Hunter for unsportsmanlike conduct tied to taunting, and Thomas Incoom for unnecessary roughness involving helmet use.
None of the three was suspended, so Carolina will still have its full group available when it lines up against Detroit. Even so, the discipline serves as a reminder that the league is watching closely, and the Lions will face a Panthers team trying to keep its edge without letting the extra attention spill into Sunday. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Suddenly Face A Sam LaPorta Question They Couldn't Settle
The Lions and Sam LaPorta have hit pause on contract-extension talks after several weeks of negotiations failed to produce a deal, a familiar sort of detour for a franchise that has not shied away from working on its own timeline. LaPortas side decided to step back for now so the tight end can stay focused on the season, leaving open the possibility that the conversation picks up again once the games are over.
For Detroit, the situation turns one of its most important young pieces into an offseason question again, even if the door is not closed. The team has a history of handling contracts during the season, and it would not be a surprise if it tries again to keep LaPorta in place long term, especially with the chance that any agreement could land him among the leagues highest-paid tight ends. [Read more 🡒]
Isaac TeSlaa Has A Real Chance To Build On Last Week
Isaac TeSlaa finally gave the Lions a glimpse of what he can add to the passing game last week, finishing with four catches for 66 yards against the Jets. For a second-year receiver still trying to carve out a steadier role, it was the kind of outing that can change how a coaching staff looks at the depth chart from one week to the next.
The next opportunity looks even more inviting against Carolina, which has already lost two starting cornerbacks to injured reserve. With Detroit likely looking to keep feeding TeSlaa after his uptick in involvement, betting analyst Drew Ellis is expecting him to top his receiving total from last week, a sign that this might be more than a one-game spike for a young player trying to force his way into the offense. [Read more 🡒]