The NFL’s 2026 salary cap isn’t official just yet, but we’re starting to get a clearer picture of where it’s headed-and it’s bigger than expected. According to reporting from NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, the cap is projected to land somewhere between $301.2 million and $305.7 million. That’s a sizable jump from last year and, for the second straight season, it’s set to outpace early projections.
Last offseason, the league estimated the 2025 cap would fall between $277.5 million and $281.5 million. The final number came in at $279.2 million-right in the heart of that range.
But this time around, most experts expected the 2026 figure to stay just under the $300 million mark. If the current projections hold, we’re looking at a minimum increase of $22 million year over year.
Now, that kind of jump might sound dramatic, but it’s actually in line with the league’s post-COVID trend. Since the pandemic-related dip in 2021, the cap has rebounded quickly and consistently. Here’s a quick look at the last decade of salary cap growth:
- 2016: $155.27M
- 2017: $167M
- 2018: $177.2M
- 2019: $188.2M
- 2020: $198.2M
- 2021: $182.5M (COVID-impacted)
- 2022: $208.2M (+$25.7M)
- 2023: $224.8M (+$16.6M)
- 2024: $255.4M (+$30.6M)
- 2025: $279.2M (+$23.8M)
- 2026: projected $301.2M - $305.7M
So what does this mean for a team like the Detroit Lions?
Well, the good news is that a higher salary cap gives teams more room to maneuver. The not-so-great news for Detroit is that even with this boost, it won’t completely solve their cap situation. As things stand, the Lions are projected to be about $5 million to $10 million over the cap for 2026.
But the picture isn’t complete just yet. There are still key adjustments to come-namely, rollover cap space from 2025 and updates based on contract incentives.
Things like “not likely to be earned” (NLTBE) bonuses and per-game roster bonuses can shift the numbers significantly. Once those adjustments are made, the Lions could see their effective cap space increase by as much as $20 million.
That would bring them into compliance, but it wouldn’t leave much wiggle room for free agency or draft signings.
The Lions aren’t alone in this. A dozen teams across the league, including every team in the NFC North, are currently projected to be over the cap.
That’s why restructures are going to be a big storyline this offseason. Expect Detroit to take a hard look at some of its veteran contracts to find space-whether it’s converting base salary to bonuses, extending deals, or making tough roster decisions.
The bottom line: the rising cap gives teams a little more breathing room, but it won’t be a cure-all. For the Lions, staying competitive in 2026 will require smart cap management, creative restructuring, and a sharp eye on value in both free agency and the draft. The margin for error just got a little wider-but not by much.