Detroit Lions’ Playoff Path: What Needs to Happen for a Postseason Push
With just three weeks left in the regular season, the Detroit Lions find themselves in a familiar spot - right on the edge of the playoff picture, with everything to play for and very little room for error.
Saturday night’s NFC North showdown between the Packers and Bears didn’t do Detroit any favors. Chicago pulled off a dramatic overtime win, rallying from a late deficit and sealing the deal on a deep ball from Caleb Williams to DJ Moore. That comeback not only kept the Bears alive but also complicated things for the Lions, who were just minutes away from controlling their own playoff fate.
Now, Detroit needs more than just wins - they need a little help from around the league.
The Current Landscape: Where the Lions Stand
Heading into Sunday’s Week 16 matchup at Ford Field against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Lions sit at 8-6 and outside the playoff picture. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, their postseason odds are at 29%.
A win over Pittsburgh would bump that number up to 41%. A loss?
That drops them all the way down to 6%.
That’s the razor’s edge Detroit is walking right now.
Here’s how the NFC playoff standings look entering Sunday:
- Seahawks (12-3) - Clinched playoff berth
- Bears (11-4) - 94% playoff odds
- Eagles (10-5) - Clinched NFC East
- Buccaneers (7-7) - 81% playoff odds
- Rams (11-4) - Clinched playoff berth
- 49ers (10-4) - 98% playoff odds
Packers (9-5-1) - 79% playoff odds
Lions (8-6) - 29%
Panthers (7-7) - 19%
Only seven teams make the cut, and right now, Detroit is on the outside looking in.
The Scenarios: How the Lions Can Still Get In
Let’s break it down. The Lions still have three games left: vs.
Steelers (Week 16), at Vikings (Week 17), and at Bears (Week 18). If they win all three and finish 11-6, they’ve got a real shot - but they’ll still need some help.
Here’s what needs to happen:
- **Scenario 1: Lions win out (11-6), Bears lose both remaining games (including Week 18 vs. Detroit).
**
That gets Detroit in.
- Scenario 2: Lions win out, Packers lose once (either to Baltimore or Minnesota). That also opens the door.
- Scenario 3: Lions win out, 49ers lose their final three games. That’s a long shot, and even then, San Francisco holds the tiebreaker due to a stronger conference record.
Now, if the Lions go 2-1 and finish 10-7, things get dicey. Especially if that one loss comes against Chicago in Week 18 - that would likely eliminate them unless Green Bay drops both of its final games.
And if Detroit finishes 9-8 or 8-9? That’s it. No playoffs.
What’s Ahead: Key Games That Will Decide Detroit’s Fate
The Lions don’t just need to take care of business - they’ll be scoreboard watching, too. Here’s the slate for the teams that matter most to Detroit’s playoff hopes:
Lions remaining schedule:
- Week 16: vs.
Steelers (Sunday, Dec. 21, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)
- Week 17: at Vikings (Thursday, Dec. 25, 4:30 p.m. ET, Netflix)
- Week 18: at Bears (Jan. 3-4, TBD)
Bears remaining schedule:
- Week 17: at 49ers (Sunday, Dec. 28, 8:20 p.m.
ET, NBC)
- Week 18: vs.
Lions (Jan. 3-4, TBD)
Packers remaining schedule:
- Week 17: vs.
Ravens (Saturday, Dec. 27, 8 p.m. ET, Peacock)
- Week 18: at Vikings (Jan. 3-4, TBD)
Detroit fans will be pulling for the 49ers and Ravens in a big way over the next two weeks.
The Big Picture: What’s at Stake
Detroit hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016. And while this team has shown flashes of being ready to take that next step, the margin for error is brutally thin.
The good news? They still control the one thing that matters most - their own performance.
Win out, and they give themselves a real shot. Slip up even once, and they’ll need a perfect storm of results elsewhere.
It’s the kind of late-season tension that makes December football so compelling. For the Lions, the road to January is still open - but they’ll need to drive it flawlessly and hope a few others hit some potholes along the way.
NFL Playoff Dates to Know
- Wild Card Round: Jan. 10-12
- Divisional Round: Jan. 17-18
- Conference Championships: Jan. 25
- Super Bowl 60: Feb. 8 in Santa Clara, California
For now, Detroit’s focus is simple: beat the Steelers, stay alive, and keep the dream intact.