The bye week didn’t erase the big-picture question hanging over the Detroit Lions: how do you take an offense that can pile up points and make it start faster?
At 3-2, Detroit has already shown plenty of firepower. The Lions are tied with the Buffalo Bills for the NFL lead in points per game at 32.8.
But Eric Woodyard of ESPN pointed out the wrinkle that keeps showing up: third down. Detroit is converting just 37.3% of its third downs, which ranks 22nd in the league.
That problem has bled into the first quarter, where the Lions have scored a touchdown only once this season. Among the six teams with one or zero first-quarter touchdowns, Detroit is one of only three with a winning record.
The other two are the Cleveland Browns, at 4-2, and the Minnesota Vikings, at 5-0. Minnesota is set to come to Detroit on Nov.
The strange part is that the Lions move the ball just fine in almost every other situation. According to NextGen Stats, Detroit ranks in the top 10 in yards per play on first down, second down and fourth down.
The numbers break down like this: tied for third on first down at 6.5 yards, ninth on second down at 5.5, and second on fourth down at 12.2. Third down is where the whole thing gets bogged down.
The Lions are tied for fourth-worst in the NFL at 4.0 yards per play on third down.
And in the opening quarter, it gets even rougher. On third downs in the first quarter, Detroit ranks last in the league at 0.6 yards per play. The only team even under a full yard there is the Carolina Panthers, at 0.9.
The Lions have been trying to clean up those slow starts for weeks, but the results still haven’t followed. Before the bye, they put 45 points on the Arizona Cardinals, but none of them came in the first quarter. Detroit opened that game with three straight 3-and-outs.
Overall, the Lions have had 11 first-quarter drives this season. Nine ended in punts, and six of those were 3-and-outs. Their only first-quarter points have come on a touchdown in Week 1 and a field goal against the Panthers in Week 4.
The next chance to get going early comes Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET against the Green Bay Packers.
And that matchup points in two different directions. On one hand, teams are averaging just 52.7 yards in first quarters against Green Bay, which is second in the league behind the Jacksonville Jaguars at 48.8, per NGS.
On the other, the Packers have been one of the league’s weakest defenses on third down, giving up 82.3 yards per game in those situations.
There’s a little opening there for Detroit, especially if Jahmyr Gibbs can find some room on the ground early. And with the Vikings waiting in Week 8, this is the first divisional test of the season for a Lions team that clearly needs to turn those opening drives into something more than punts.
In Other News...
Why The Lions Contender Hype Suddenly Looks A Lot More Real
Through six weeks, the Lions have started to look less like a team riding early-season momentum and more like one with a real path to staying in the NFC race. The numbers back up the eye test, too, with the offense and defense both showing meaningful improvement from where this group has been in recent seasons. Detroit has been efficient enough to keep pace with almost anybody, and the way the unit is functioning now suggests the ceiling is higher than many expected back in September.
A big part of the optimism is what still appears to be coming. The defensive front has shown more bite, the secondary has steadied in stretches, and the team is set up to get healthier after the bye with key pieces coming back into the mix. Add in a remaining schedule that does not look overwhelming, and the case for the Lions as a legitimate contender suddenly feels a lot less theoretical. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Suddenly Face A Packers Threat That Looks Much Worse
Green Bay has spent much of its recent stretch looking like a team trying to find its footing on the ground while leaning harder on the parts of its offense that can still stress a defense. The Packers have battled inconsistency in the run game, but they remain dangerous in the vertical passing game, and their safety play has given them a sturdy backbone as they head into a matchup with Detroit.
For the Lions, that creates a very specific kind of problem. Detroit has struggled to handle deep shots, and the Packers have shown they can punish teams in those areas while also targeting the middle of the field with confidence. A few personnel changes could shape how much balance Green Bay can bring back into the offense, and that is what makes this matchup worth watching closely as the week unfolds. [Read more 🡒]
Dan Campbell Sees Something Even Scarier In Penei Sewell
Penei Sewell has already built a rsum that would satisfy almost any lineman in the league, but the Lions still believe there is more room to grow. Since Detroit drafted him in 2021, Sewell has handled the move from right tackle to left tackle with ease, and coach Dan Campbell continues to talk about him like a player still on the rise rather than one who has peaked.
That is what makes Sewell such a fascinating piece of Detroits foundation. He is already a four-time Pro Bowler and three-time NFL All-Pro, yet both he and Campbell see more improvement ahead, and Sewell has pointed to his daily battles with Aidan Hutchinson as a big reason he keeps pushing his level higher. For a Lions offense and team identity built on toughness up front, that kind of internal competition is exactly the sort of thing that can keep getting scarier. [Read more 🡒]