Like every week, I started by digging into the Detroit Lions’ next opponent and watching Minnesota’s most recent game against the Indianapolis Colts.
The headline from that 16-10 Vikings win is simple: this team can absolutely squeeze an offense, and the pass defense is the part that should make everybody around Detroit pay attention. Minnesota came after the Colts in waves, blitzing on 85.2% of dropbacks, the highest rate ever recorded in the NextGenStats era going back to 2016.
That pressure produced four sacks and an interception, with at least three more throws that could have turned into picks. Indianapolis finished with just 108 passing yards, 64 net, and 4.9 yards per attempt.
They never landed a completion longer than 13 yards.
That isn’t just a one-game oddity, either. Minnesota’s defensive numbers across the season are outrageous.
They’re allowing a 61.7 passer rating, best in the league by a wide margin, and their 10.6 sack percentage is also tops. The same goes for their 53.9% completion rate allowed, their 68.4% blitz rate, their minus-0.30 EPA per pass allowed, and their 35.5% dropback success rate allowed.
In every one of those categories, the next-best team is sitting well behind them.
The encouraging part for Detroit is that the Lions have handled the blitz well this season. That’s where this matchup gets interesting, because Minnesota clearly isn’t afraid to lean into aggression and live with the consequences.
The Colts also showed a path to hanging around against the Vikings: run the ball and stay out of obvious passing situations. Indianapolis gashed Minnesota more than most teams have this year, piling up 33 carries for 154 yards and a touchdown, with a 4.7 yards-per-carry average. Their rushing efficiency was enough to keep the Colts on schedule, and that showed up on third down, where they converted 53% of their chances - easily the highest rate Minnesota has given up all season.
Even so, it’s important not to oversell the ground game as a solved issue for Minnesota. The Colts have one of the better rushing attacks in football, and their output still landed more in the above-average range than the dominant one.
But it does hint at a possible route for Detroit, especially with the Lions’ own running game not always consistent. If they can create manageable downs, they may have a chance to keep Minnesota from turning the game into a pure dropback contest.
Minnesota’s offense, meanwhile, is still trying to find its shape with Kyler Murray at quarterback. The points are not there yet - 20.8 per game, which ranks 23rd - even though the Vikings have been handed excellent field position all season, with an average starting spot at their own 33.9-yard line, third best in the league. The efficiency has been lacking too, as they’re averaging only 4.7 yards per play, which sits 27th.
Against the Colts, Murray’s accuracy stood out as a problem. He completed 14 of 24 passes for 58.3%, and his minus-12.2% completion percentage over expected was second-worst of the week, trailing only Patrick Mahomes.
For the season, Murray’s +0.7% CPOE is more respectable, but the deeper issues remain. He’s 22nd in yards per pass attempt at 6.5 and 23rd in EPA per dropback at minus-0.09.
He also hasn’t been pushing the ball deep much; his 7.0-yard average depth of target ranks 23rd out of 33.
Minnesota’s running game has been fine in spots, but short-yardage work has become a real issue. Against the Colts, the Vikings had a third-and-1 in Indianapolis territory after a strong kick return and got nowhere, with Aaron Jones losing a combined yard on back-to-back carries.
Later, they only barely converted a fourth-and-inches with a Murray sneak. That fits the broader season trend: Minnesota has a 60% power success rate on third- and fourth-and-short, which ranks 21st.
That particular weakness lines up with one of Detroit’s own problem areas. The Lions’ run defense has allowed an 83% success rate in those situations, tied for the highest in the NFL. That makes this a weakness-on-weakness spot worth watching.
On the whole, Minnesota’s rushing numbers are just okay. They’re 21st in yards per carry at 4.0 and 27th in both rush EPA and rushing success rate. With Aaron Jones’ health uncertain and Jordan Mason back in the mix, there’s still some uncertainty about how the Vikings will handle the ground game this week.
Special teams could easily decide field position in this one, because both teams are bringing serious firepower there. Minnesota wasn’t perfect against the Colts - they had a 59-yard field goal blocked and allowed a 43-yard kick return - but the rest of the operation was sharp. Brett Thorson pinned both of his punts inside the 20, Myles Price added a 46-yard kick return, and Will Reichard has not missed a kick this season aside from the block.
For the year, the Vikings are first in punt return average at 19.2, first in kick return average at 30.7, eighth in punt coverage average at 8.7, and 14th in kick coverage average at 25.2. They also sit first in special teams DVOA.
Detroit has been excellent there too. The Lions are fifth in special teams DVOA, third in punt return average at 14.4, 22nd in kick return average at 25.0, fifth in punt coverage average at 8.1, and fifth in kick coverage average at 23.8. Jake Bates hasn’t missed a kick.
Fans of special teams units will have their Super Bowl on Sunday.
In Other News...
Lions Trade Deadline Debate Comes Down To One Risky Cornerback Choice
The Colts decision to move on from Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner for future draft picks has only sharpened the trade deadline conversation around their roster, and it should have the Lions paying attention. If Indianapolis is truly in seller mode, Detroit could find itself looking at a rare opportunity to add help at cornerback, where a proven veteran or a younger high-end starter would fit a clear need as the deadline approaches.
Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner are the names to watch, and each comes with a different kind of gamble. Ward brings experience but also age, a serious concussion history and an expiring contract, while Gardners talent is obvious even if the price tag is not, with a hefty cap hit looming in 2026. For Detroit, the appeal is obvious, but so is the risk if Brad Holmes decides to make a move. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Trade Deadline Pressure Is Rising Around One Defensive Decision
With the Nov. 10 trade deadline approaching, the Lions are again being linked to help on defense, and the conversation starts with the same familiar question: how aggressive should they be about fixing the back end of the roster? Cornerback sits near the top of the shopping list, with linebacker and defensive tackle also drawing attention as the team weighs whether to add a proven piece or stand pat and trust its current group.
Sauce Gardner is part of the discussion because of a sharp dip in production with the Colts, while Charvarius Ward has also surfaced as a possible option despite the complications that come with an expiring contract and injury history. Those kinds of names show how wide the range of possibilities is for Detroit, from bigger swings at the position to more restrained moves that fit the long-term picture, and it leaves the Lions facing a deadline decision that could shape how the defense looks down the stretch. [Read more 🡒]
Jared Goff Is Forcing His Way Into The MVP Conversation
Jared Goffs latest run has done more than keep the Lions on track, it has pushed his season into a different kind of conversation. After Detroits recent win, he has piled up 150 completions on 223 attempts and posted a passer rating of 112.5, production that has him sitting near the top of the league and drawing fresh attention from around the NFL.
An ESPN feature made the case that Goff belongs in the sleeper MVP discussion, pointing to his strong expected points added as a sign of how efficiently he is driving Detroits offense. He is still not the favorite in that race, but the fact that his name is being mentioned at all says plenty about how steady and valuable his play has been for a Lions team with bigger ambitions. [Read more 🡒]