The officiating will get the loudest replay from Packers fans on Monday, and there were a couple of calls that deserved the heat. The roughing the passer penalty on the Lions’ game-winning drive was awful, and the unnecessary roughness call on Devonte Wyatt was just as hard to justify, especially with Amon-Ra St. Brown getting up and trying to squeeze out extra yards.
Still, the bigger story from Sunday night is that Green Bay was the team that got out of jail with a close score. Detroit controlled most of the game and only left the door open because of a handful of mistakes that blunted what looked like a comfortable Lions win.
The cleanest way to see that is through success rate. It’s not the only number that matters, but it does a nice job of showing who is winning the down-to-down battle.
In this one, Detroit posted a 53.7% success rate on offense, which was the fifth-best mark of any team in Week 7. Green Bay sat at 34.3%, the second-worst output of the week.
That gap was the second-largest in any Week 7 game.
So how did the Packers stay in it? A lot of fortune went their way.
Detroit was hurt when Cade Mays accidentally knocked the ball loose from Jahmyr Gibbs as the Lions were pushing toward a two-score lead before halftime. Then Jared Goff missed a snap exchange from Mays on the next drive, handing Green Bay excellent field position and setting up a touchdown. That sequence alone could swing a game by 14 points.
The Lions, of course, had some things break their way too. One missed field goal was a break for Green Bay, while the other was blocked by DJ Wonnum. The Packers also benefited from a drop or two, and the whistle clearly did them a few favors as well, even with Detroit on the wrong end of some bad calls and no-calls.
But the play-by-play picture still points in one direction. Detroit averaged 6.3 yards per play to Green Bay’s 5.0. The Packers’ clearest edge came in turnovers, and both Detroit giveaways were unforced.
Green Bay did make a few timely plays. The Packers held the Lions to 0-for-2 on fourth down and limited them to 2-for-5 in the red zone.
But Detroit answered in those situations, too, and actually did more damage overall. Green Bay went 3-for-4 on fourth down, but finished just 1-of-4 in the red zone and converted only 33% of its third downs, compared with Detroit’s 50%.
In Other News...
Lions Suddenly Face A Bigger NFC Test Than The Standings Show
After seven weeks, the NFC picture has tightened into something that looks less like a division race and more like a weekly survival test. The Vikings are still unbeaten at the top of the North, while the Bears, Lions and Packers all sit in playoff position, and even Seattle is lurking just outside the bracket. For Detroit, the margin for error is already thin enough that every divisional result can change how the standings feel from one Sunday to the next.
What makes the next stretch especially tricky is how little room there is to separate contenders from pretenders. The Lions are in the mix, but the path ahead runs through a conference that keeps stacking competent teams on top of one another, with upcoming games set to shape not just the North but the broader NFC race. And when Detroit gets its next crack at Minnesota, it will be facing a team that has been suffocating opponents defensively, which only raises the stakes of every possession before that matchup even arrives. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Got A Huge Late-Game Break From An Unexpected Defender
Late in the fourth quarter, the Lions got a break from an unlikely place when defensive tackle DJ Wonnum got a hand on Green Bay kicker Trey Smacks 35-yard field-goal attempt. The deflection helped send the kick wide and kept the game tied in a tense finish that was hanging on every snap.
It was the kind of play that can disappear in the blur of a close game, and even some Lions teammates did not realize Wonnum had made the difference until after it was over. Detroit ultimately walked away with a 20-17 win, and the late stop loomed large because it prevented the Packers from taking the lead when the pressure was at its highest. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Got The Injury Reassurance Fans Wanted After Packers Win
The Lions left Lambeau with a win and, as often happens after a physical NFC North game, a little injury cleanup on the side. Dan Campbell said after Week 7 that Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ennis Rakestraw came out with minor issues, the kind of postgame concern that tends to linger only long enough to make everyone hold their breath before the next week begins.
For Detroit, the encouraging part is the timing. Neither player is expected to miss the upcoming matchup with the Vikings, even if one or both sits out a practice day along the way, and the Lions have enough depth to absorb a short absence if needed. Rakestraw had a role against Green Bay, logging 31 percent of the defensive snaps, and the message around the injury report is that this looks more like a brief inconvenience than a real setback. [Read more 🡒]