The Lions can make a serious dent in the NFC race in Week 10, and the path runs through a few very specific scoreboard-watching spots around the league.
Detroit enters the week at 6-2, sitting second in the NFC North behind Chicago and holding the No. 5 seed in the conference for now. The Bears are 7-2 but on a bye, which opens the door for the Lions to pull even with a win against New England. If Detroit gets the job done and Chicago stays idle, the division picture tightens fast.
There’s also a tiebreaker angle that matters. The Lions are unbeaten in the division, while the Bears have already taken two NFC North losses, to Green Bay and Minnesota. Since Detroit and Chicago have not played head-to-head, a 7-2 finish for both would leave the Lions with the edge based on divisional record.
And if everything breaks just right, Detroit could even walk out of Week 10 in position to chase the NFC’s top seed.
One of the biggest rooting interests comes in the NFC South, where the Saints and Panthers are battling for first place despite both carrying losing records. Detroit already owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over New Orleans thanks to its overtime Week 1 win, but Carolina handed the Lions a loss in Week 4.
That makes the Saints the preferred outcome here. Carolina is the team that did more damage to Detroit, and the source material points to the Panthers as the tougher postseason matchup if the Lions were to see them again.
The NFC North race gets another spotlight in Green Bay, where the Packers and Vikings meet in a game that could shape the division picture for Detroit. All four teams in the division are at least .500, and there is a path for all four to reach the postseason with three Wild Card spots in play. Detroit has already beaten both Green Bay and Minnesota once, so it currently holds the tiebreaker over each.
A loss for either side would still leave the door open, but a third loss for Minnesota would matter a lot for Detroit’s divisional chase. According to the New York Times’ Playoff Simulator, the Lions’ chances of winning the division would rise to 34 percent with a win and a Green Bay win, while a win and a Vikings win would put those odds at 31 percent. At the same time, Detroit’s overall playoff odds would be better if Minnesota wins, since a fourth loss for Green Bay would be a bigger problem in a crowded NFC field.
Still, the Lions have made it clear where the priority sits: win the division and host a playoff game. That means rooting for the result that gives Detroit the best shot at finishing first in the North.
Elsewhere, the AFC-over-NFC logic applies again. Lions fans should pull for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Falcons have enough offense to stay in the race, but a loss that drops them to 3-7 would make the climb much steeper even in the NFC South.
Out west, the Rams are another team Detroit would rather not see gather steam. The source describes them as one of the league’s most talented teams, with veterans like Matthew Stafford, Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald leading the way. Injuries and early-season struggles have left them in a difficult spot, but they still carry the kind of postseason danger that could matter to the Lions later.
That makes the Cardinals the preferred side in that matchup. Arizona already beat the Rams at SoFi Stadium earlier this season, and another win would drop Los Angeles to 5-5. Per the NYT playoff simulator, that would leave the Rams with a 24 percent playoff chance.
There’s another reason to want that result: it helps keep the Seahawks in check. Seattle is another team hanging around the Wild Card picture, and the reigning Super Bowl champions have been inconsistent.
A loss would drop their playoff percentage to 45 percent. The setup also gives Lions fans a chance to root for the No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, who is set to make his first career start after the Raiders traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota.
Finally, the 49ers enter Week 10 at 7-1 and still hold the NFC’s top seed for now. But a loss to Dallas would pull them back to 7-2, and if Detroit wins, the Lions would jump ahead of both San Francisco and Chicago thanks to their record within the conference.
San Francisco would then have a second NFC loss, after falling to Atlanta earlier in the year, while Detroit’s lone defeat came against an AFC opponent. Chicago’s two losses have both come against NFC teams.
So the big picture is simple enough: if Detroit beats New England and a few other results fall the right way, the Lions could head into Week 11 with control of the No. 1 seed race.
Lions playoff percentage if all these outcomes come true: 79 percent chance to make playoffs, 35 percent chance to win the NFC North.
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