Week 4 gives bettors a clean setup, and the number that stands out most to me is in Kansas City. Even with Patrick Mahomes on the field, the 47.5 total feels a touch high when both defenses have been playing at a top-10 level.
The Raiders have been especially stingy, sitting second in opponent EPA per play and eighth in opponent success rate while allowing only 5.2 yards per snap. Kansas City has been just as hard to move the ball on, ranking third in opponent yards per play at 4.7 and checking in sixth in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.
That combination makes the UNDER the play.
There’s also a game where I don’t want anyone getting seduced by one flashy quarterback performance. Case Keenum’s strong Monday Night Football showing is the kind of thing that can pull bettors in, but backup quarterbacks rarely keep that level going.
The Jets have quietly done enough to make this one interesting. They’re not a playoff team, but they’ve been average to above average in a lot of areas on both sides of the ball, and their special teams have remained one of the league’s best.
If Keenum comes back to earth, New York is very much alive to win.
On the side I like most, I’m sticking with Detroit. I’m still buying in on the Lions, especially with their defense starting to get healthier.
I also don’t think the market is giving them enough credit. Through three weeks, they’ve had the second-worst defensive luck according to RBSDM.com, which only adds to the case that this team belongs in the NFC contender conversation.
The Panthers, meanwhile, don’t inspire much confidence after Bryce Young’s rough outing against the Cleveland Browns last week. That was enough for me to pump the brakes on expecting Carolina to pile up points Sunday.
I’ll take Detroit to win and cover for the second straight week.
In Other News...
Panthers Hit With New NFL Discipline Right Before Lions Game
The Panthers are dealing with a little added noise before their matchup with the Lions, as the NFL handed down fines to three Carolina players for penalties committed in Week 3 against Cleveland. A.J. Dillon was fined for a facemask, Lee Hunter for unsportsmanlike conduct tied to taunting, and Thomas Incoom for unnecessary roughness involving helmet use.
None of the three was suspended, so Carolina will still have its full group available when it lines up against Detroit. Even so, the discipline serves as a reminder that the league is watching closely, and the Lions will face a Panthers team trying to keep its edge without letting the extra attention spill into Sunday. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Suddenly Face A Sam LaPorta Question They Couldn't Settle
The Lions and Sam LaPorta have hit pause on contract-extension talks after several weeks of negotiations failed to produce a deal, a familiar sort of detour for a franchise that has not shied away from working on its own timeline. LaPortas side decided to step back for now so the tight end can stay focused on the season, leaving open the possibility that the conversation picks up again once the games are over.
For Detroit, the situation turns one of its most important young pieces into an offseason question again, even if the door is not closed. The team has a history of handling contracts during the season, and it would not be a surprise if it tries again to keep LaPorta in place long term, especially with the chance that any agreement could land him among the leagues highest-paid tight ends. [Read more 🡒]
Isaac TeSlaa Has A Real Chance To Build On Last Week
Isaac TeSlaa finally gave the Lions a glimpse of what he can add to the passing game last week, finishing with four catches for 66 yards against the Jets. For a second-year receiver still trying to carve out a steadier role, it was the kind of outing that can change how a coaching staff looks at the depth chart from one week to the next.
The next opportunity looks even more inviting against Carolina, which has already lost two starting cornerbacks to injured reserve. With Detroit likely looking to keep feeding TeSlaa after his uptick in involvement, betting analyst Drew Ellis is expecting him to top his receiving total from last week, a sign that this might be more than a one-game spike for a young player trying to force his way into the offense. [Read more 🡒]