The Lions head to Miami on Sunday afternoon trying to stretch their win streak to four, but this Week 9 matchup comes with plenty of caution flags attached.
Detroit shook off an upset loss in Carolina to open October and has responded with three straight wins, capped by last week’s 19-15 victory over the Vikings. Miami, meanwhile, finally got on the board with a win over the Jets in Week 7, only to follow that up with a 24-19 loss to New England.
From a betting standpoint, both teams have been equally unreliable against the number so far, sitting at 3-4 ATS this season. The spread hasn’t budged since opening, but the total has climbed from 49.5 to 50.5, with the OVER now sitting as the slight favorite.
SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan, in his Road to 272 Bets column, pointed to the state of Detroit’s roster as the biggest reason for hesitation. The Lions came out of the Vikings game with a long injury list that includes center Cade Mays, linebackers Jack Campbell and DJ Wonnum, safety Brian Branch, and cornerback D.J.
Reed. That kind of damage makes it tough to trust Detroit as a road favorite of this size, especially against a Dolphins team that has struggled but still has enough offensive firepower to make things uncomfortable.
MacMillan also noted that Detroit’s defense has been a problem all season, ranking in the bottom five in almost every major metric. Even with the Lions’ offense capable of putting pressure on Miami, the combination of injuries and defensive issues makes laying more than a touchdown hard to justify.
That lines up with the broader case against Detroit here. The offense hasn’t been piling up points over the last two weeks, and the Lions have only one win this season by more than seven points, a 45-21 result in Arizona.
The read here is that Detroit should still get the job done, but not by much. A Dolphins cover in the +10.5 range is in play, and pairing that with the UNDER is another angle that makes sense.
In Other News...
Lions Defense Is Already Feeling Jack Campbells Absence
Jack Campbells neck injury has left the Lions dealing with more than just a lineup hole. The linebacker remains hospitalized, but there has been encouraging progress in his movement, and the team has had to start adjusting to the reality of moving forward without one of its most important defensive pieces. Defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard addressed that challenge directly, telling the group to honor Campbell through the way they prepare and play.
The emotional reach of the injury has stretched beyond Detroit, too, with Dolphins coach Jeff Hafley offering support for Campbell and the Lions. For a defense that leans on Campbells presence and steadiness, the immediate task is as much about keeping the unit grounded as it is about filling snaps. The Lions now have to manage the football side of the absence while carrying the human side of it, which is never easy in a week like this. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Could Get A Needed Linebacker Boost Sooner Than Expected
The Lions have spent the past few weeks piecing together their linebacker group after a run of injuries forced them to shuffle the lineup and lean on the practice squad. Devin White, who has been out since breaking his right forearm, has been one of the names circled as a possible boost, and his return would give Detroit another experienced body at a position that has needed constant adjustment.
White has said he feels good about where his recovery stands, and the next checkpoint should provide a clearer picture of how close he is to getting back on the field. For a defense that has had to keep patching holes, even the possibility of adding him back into the mix this month is a welcome development. [Read more 🡒]
Jake Bates First Miss Wasnt Quite What Lions Fans Thought
Jake Bates had been perfect through the first six games, which made his first miss of the season in Week 8 against Minnesota stand out immediately to anyone watching the Lions closely. A 46-yard attempt sailed wide in a game Detroit still managed to win, and for a kicker who had looked automatic early, it was the kind of moment that naturally drew a second look.
Special teams coordinator Dave Fipp later offered the kind of explanation that usually calms a sideline down more than it stirs one up, pointing to a timing issue on the operation rather than a broader concern with Bates. The Lions expected to clean it up in practice, and with the win already banked, the miss looked less like a trend and more like a fixable blip in an otherwise steady start. [Read more 🡒]