Week 4 brings the first London game of the NFL season, the first wave of byes is still a week away, and the board is loaded with angles worth attacking. That means it’s time to go game by game and make the spread calls for all 16 matchups.
The early-season read on Pittsburgh is getting harder to ignore. Deshaun Watson might be better than expected, and the Steelers are still a team worth fading as long as Aaron Rodgers is running the offense.
On the other side of that same matchup, Washington has a path to hanging around against Indianapolis because the Colts’ defense has been described as atrocious, and Jonathan Taylor has been averaging fewer than four yards per carry this season. If Washington can stop the run, this one should stay within reach.
New England also fits the classic buy-low profile, while Buffalo looks like a sell-high spot. The Bills can light up the scoreboard, but the concern is that their defense is going to be the unit that eventually burns them.
In the same vein, the Jets can be trusted to keep things respectable because Case Keenum’s one-off showing shouldn’t be mistaken for what he’ll produce every week in Caleb Williams’ absence. The Jets are still viewed as an above-average team, and that matters against the spread.
Jacksonville has earned more trust than Cincinnati. The Jaguars were a team I was high on before the season, and they’ve backed that up so far.
The Bengals, meanwhile, are still a wait-and-see bet until Joe Burrow gets back to peak form, especially with his first three weeks described as less-than-stellar. Arizona also draws a favorable setup, with the Giants’ defense among the worst in the league by EPA and success rate and Jameis Winston’s arm clearly not what it used to be.
The Cardinals have enough offense to take advantage.
Philadelphia is another team raising red flags. The Eagles’ offensive numbers sit in the bottom five of the NFL, and the defense has looked like a shell of its former self.
That’s not the profile of a team bettors should be eager to lay points with right now. Green Bay, by contrast, gets a boost from Tampa Bay’s issues.
The Buccaneers’ offense is last in the league in success rate, and now an undrafted rookie is starting at quarterback. Their lack of pass rush should also give the Packers’ offensive line a much-needed break.
Baltimore stands out as one of the safer plays on the board. There’s no interest in backing Tennessee with Cam Ward at quarterback, especially with the belief that even a handed win can still slip away from him. The Ravens, though, have quietly been one of the most dominant teams in the league from an advanced metrics standpoint, and that points to a blowout.
Houston is another spot to fade. The Texans’ defense hasn’t matched the dominance it showed in past seasons, and without Nico Collins, the offense can’t consistently move the ball down the field.
That leaves them vulnerable against a Dallas attack that can score in bunches. Minnesota is a different kind of favorite: good enough defensively to win, but not necessarily built to separate by 11 or more.
The Dolphins are bad, but the Vikings’ offense ranks in the bottom five in almost every major metric, which makes the spread the issue.
The Raiders are also worth a look. Their defense has been one of the best in the league through three weeks, and if the offense avoids turnovers that hand the Chiefs easy points, they can keep this one tight.
San Francisco, meanwhile, continues to look like the class of the league by many measures. Denver’s two home wins don’t carry much weight here, especially with one of them being handed to them by bafflingly wrong calls late.
The 49ers should keep rolling.
The Chargers’ offense under Mike McDaniel is expected to find its footing at some point this season, but a road game against the best defense in the NFL is not the place to expect that breakthrough. Detroit is the strongest side of the Sunday night matchup, too. The Lions still inspire complete confidence, with an offense that ranks among the best in the league and a defense that should be able to hold together against a Panthers team that hasn’t been nearly as good as it looked in the first two weeks.
Atlanta closes the week as a team that looks different with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. The Falcons also have a defense that has quietly been a top-five unit so far, which makes them another side worth backing in Week 4.
In Other News...
Dan Campbell Hinted At Big Lions Roster Decisions Before Carolina
With a short week leading into Carolina, Dan Campbell spent part of his pregame update signaling that the Lions still have some roster chess to play. Detroit is in trade talks for Joey Porter Jr., while safety Brian Branch is nearing a return to practice, and Campbell also made clear that he remains confident in linebacker Jack Campbell even after a slow start to the season. The message was less about the headlines than the direction: the Lions are still sorting out how their defense wants to look as the schedule tightens.
The immediate assignment, though, is straightforward enough. Detroit is focused on keeping Bryce Young from settling in, and Campbell said the biggest defensive concern beyond that is handling tight ends in the middle of the field. He also raised the possibility of rookie linebacker Jimmy Rolder getting defensive snaps, a reminder that the Lions may not be done adjusting the group as they balance short-term needs with longer-term decisions. [Read more 🡒]
Brian Branch Return Timeline Just Got A Lot More Interesting
Brian Branchs path back to the field is starting to come into focus, and that matters for a Lions defense that has had to wait out one of its most important young pieces. The safety is close to returning from the Achilles injury he suffered last season, according to Dan Campbell, after beginning the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If the timeline holds, Branch is expected to be eligible to return to practice next week, a first step toward getting him back in the mix.
What happens after that will be the part Detroit is watching most closely. The Lions would then have the 21-day window to work through before deciding on activation, and Kelvin Sheppards recent comments about the defense and its preparation only add to the sense that the unit is bracing for a potentially meaningful addition. For a team trying to keep its defensive rhythm intact, Branchs return would be one of the more notable developments on the horizon. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Could Have Tough Trade Calls If Young Talent Keeps Rising
The Lions are heading toward the trade deadline in an unusual spot for a team still trying to build something lasting: they are expected to be buyers, but they also have to keep sorting through which veterans and depth pieces fit the roster long term. As Detroit evaluates its options, cornerback Amani Oruwariye, defensive lineman Levi Onwuzurike and offensive lineman Logan Stenberg have surfaced as names to watch, especially if the front office decides a roster spot or draft asset can be better used elsewhere.
What makes the calculus trickier is that the answer may not be about those players alone. The Lions also have to factor in how younger talent is coming along and whether injuries create new pressure points before the deadline arrives. If those developments keep breaking the right way, Detroit could find itself making some difficult calls on useful pieces rather than simply adding help. [Read more 🡒]