Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions are set up for a favorable day through the air when they meet the Miami Dolphins this week, and the numbers make the picture pretty clear.
Detroit has been one of the league’s most efficient passing teams all season. The Lions rank No. 1 in the NFL in estimated points added per pass play at 0.23, according to SumerSports, and their 53 percent success rate through the air trails only the San Francisco 49ers. Goff has been right at the center of it, putting together one of the best stretches of his career with 1,964 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and just one interception in seven games.
That aerial production has only become more dangerous because of what Jahmyr Gibbs has done on the ground. Together, the run game and pass game have turned Detroit into a true pick-your-poison offense. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing said the balance is what makes the unit so hard to defend.
"When both of those things are playing at a high level, I think you put the defense in a little bit of a bind there in terms of well, which one are you taking away? And where are your matchups that you feel comfortable exposing a little bit?"
Miami, meanwhile, has had the opposite problem. The Dolphins are 1-6 and have struggled badly against the pass, allowing a league-worst 0.26 EPA per pass play and a 52.5 percent passing success rate.
First-year Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley, who also handles defensive play-calling, acknowledged the challenge in front of his group.
"They could hit you from a variety of different angles, whether it’s in the run game or the pass game," he said. "I view that as a challenge that we look forward to.
I mean, anytime you get a chance to go up against the top offense in the league, you need to prepare and you need to rise up to the level that you’re going to play against. And for a young group of guys, I think it’s really exciting."
Hafley knows the Lions’ offense well from his time as the Green Bay Packers’ defensive coordinator from 2024 to 2025, but this Miami defense is a different level of vulnerable, especially on the back end. Jason Marshall Jr. and JuJu Brents have had a rough go as the team’s top two corners.
Rookie nickel Chris Johnson has shown flashes, but he’s still dealing with rookie growing pains. At safety, Michael Taaffe and Dante Trader Jr. are an inexperienced pairing learning as they go.
The pass rush hasn’t offered much help either. Miami ranks 12th-worst in pressure rate and has the third-fewest sacks in the league, which means quarterbacks haven’t had to hurry much against this defense.
That gives Goff plenty of places to go with the football, and Detroit’s receiving options all bring something different to the table. Amon-Ra St.
Brown continues to do Amon-Ra St. Brown things, leading the Lions in every major receiving category with 53 catches for 571 yards and five touchdowns.
Jameson Williams has shaken off a slow start and turned into a big-play problem, catching 27 passes for 437 yards and five touchdowns, with all five scores coming over the last three games.
Sam LaPorta has been a major factor too, stacking up 31 catches for 367 yards and three touchdowns. And Gibbs has added another layer as a receiver, with 34 catches for 285 yards and two touchdowns out of the backfield.
Detroit is coming off an emotional week after the serious injury to Jack Campbell, and getting back to its usual offensive rhythm would be a welcome answer. That could mean another highly efficient passing performance from Goff - and maybe his first career win over the Dolphins.
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