Jahmyr Gibbs has been a problem for just about everybody the Lions have lined up across from this season. Green Bay, though, has managed to keep him in check.
That’s the puzzle Detroit is trying to solve Sunday. Gibbs has never put together a signature game against the Packers, and the numbers back it up: in six career meetings, he hasn’t gone over 68 rushing yards once. Over those matchups, he’s averaging 48.2 rushing yards per game, 3.4 yards per carry and 20 receiving yards.
Even with the league record for most touchdowns before age 25, he has only found the end zone twice against Green Bay.
The Packers’ run defense has been ordinary by the raw totals. They’re giving up the 15th-most rushing yards per game and 19th-highest yards per carry at four, and their nine rushing touchdowns allowed are tied for the second-most in the league.
On a snap-by-snap basis, though, the run defense has been better than the box score suggests. Green Bay ranks 22nd in the NFL in EPA per rush.
That sets up a clear test for Detroit: can Gibbs finally crack this defense and give the Lions the kind of offensive control they’ll need?
“Woo. He's faster than everybody,” Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon said of Gibbs.
“He has elite vision, I would say. He can make any cut that you want, he's got really good contact balance, he's stronger.
For not like a huge back, I think he breaks a lot of tackles. And in the pass game, he's a run-and-pass threat.
He's a really good player. Big-time challenge."
Gibbs, for his part, offered a much simpler response when reporters asked about Gannon this week: “Who’s that?” It read like a genuine slip, and it was one of those odd little moments that tends to stick until kickoff.
Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been operating at full strength, either. Superstar edge Micah Parsons is still out with a torn ACL, stud linebacker Edgerrin Cooper suffered a torn achilles this season, and linebacker Zaire Franklin has not worked out as an offseason replacement for Quay Walker.
Even so, the Packers have had success slowing down some backs this year. Breece Hall, Javonte Williams and Bucky Irving were among the runners they’ve bottled up. But Atlanta and Bijan Robinson found daylight in a big way, with the Packers allowing 242 rushing yards and three touchdowns in that game.
That’s the version of the Packers Detroit has to be wary of, especially with Jordan Love and Green Bay’s passing game rolling. The Lions are 3-0 when Gibbs gets at least 25 touches this season and 0-2 when he doesn’t, which tells you plenty about how important his workload is when Detroit wants to dictate the pace.
The rest of the offense has been humming, too. Detroit is tied for first in the NFL in points per game, fourth in yards per game and third in EPA per play. Gibbs has been at the center of it all, leading the league in touchdowns and ranking third in yards from scrimmage.
Detroit’s offensive line looks improved, and center Cade Mays is back this week. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has already found plenty of ways to manufacture touches for Gibbs; now the goal is to turn that into a breakthrough against Green Bay.
“He always has us in the right looks,” Gibbs said of Petzing. “He's always going to get us prepared for every game. So, we're just going to listen to what he does and we're going to operate.”
The timing matters, too. The NFC North is tight enough that all four teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, and the Lions have somehow gone all the way to Week 7 without drawing a divisional game. This one is the biggest on their schedule so far, and after going 2-4 against the NFC North last year, they need to get back on track inside the division.
Getting Gibbs loose would be the cleanest way to start.
“You definitely want to get those wins back and get back how it used to be when we took over the division,” Gibbs said. “I think every team wants to do that.”
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