Lions’ Playoff Hopes Take a Hit, But the Door Isn’t Shut Just Yet
The Detroit Lions had a golden opportunity to solidify their playoff positioning in Week 15 - and let it slip through their fingers. A loss to the Los Angeles Rams didn’t just sting in the standings; it significantly dented their postseason odds.
A win would’ve pushed Detroit’s playoff chances north of 60%, even though they would’ve remained in the eighth seed. Now, with just three games left, the Lions find themselves on the outside looking in - and the clock is ticking.
Where Things Stand in the NFC
Here’s a snapshot of the NFC playoff picture heading into Week 16:
Division Leaders:
- Rams: 11-3
- Bears: 10-4
- Eagles: 9-5
- Buccaneers: 7-7
Wild Card Race (Top 3 Advance): 5.
Seahawks: 11-3
6. 49ers: 10-4
- Packers: 9-4-1
- Lions: 8-6
- Panthers: 7-7
- Cowboys: 6-7-1
Detroit sits two spots out of the final Wild Card spot, and with only three games to go, the margin for error is gone. But here’s the twist: the Lions still have a puncher’s chance. According to several playoff probability models, Detroit isn’t quite dead in the water.
Lions’ Playoff Odds (Week 16)
- New York Times: 25% (down 15% from last week)
- FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 41.8% (down 19.1%)
- ESPN: 36% (down 19%)
- NextGenStats: 40% (down 11%)
For a team that just dropped to 8-6 and is chasing multiple teams, those are surprisingly decent odds. That’s largely because Detroit still controls part of its own destiny. A Week 18 showdown with the Bears looms large, and if the Lions win that one, they could make up critical ground - especially if Chicago stumbles before then.
The Bears have a brutal stretch to close out the season: they’ll face the Packers (9-4-1) and 49ers (10-4) before meeting the Lions. Even one loss in that stretch could open the door wide for Detroit.
The Packers Factor
Another possible path for Detroit? Leapfrogging the Packers.
Green Bay is clinging to the final Wild Card spot, but they just suffered a major blow, losing standout defender Micah Parsons for the season. That’s a big loss at a crucial time.
The Packers’ closing schedule isn’t exactly a cakewalk either: they’ll take on the Bears, Ravens, and Vikings. If they drop two of those games and the Lions run the table, Detroit would jump them in the standings.
Still, the odds favor both the Bears and Packers to reach the postseason.
Bears Playoff Odds:
- New York Times: 85%
- FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 77.9%
- ESPN: 75%
- NextGenStats: 74%
Packers Playoff Odds:
- New York Times: 91%
- FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 84.7%
- ESPN: 91%
- NextGenStats: 88%
What About the Division?
If you’re still holding out hope for a third-straight NFC North title, you’re not alone - but it’s going to take some help. Here’s what needs to happen:
- Lions win out (3-0)
- Bears lose to either the Packers or 49ers
- Packers lose two of their final three (Bears, Ravens, 49ers)
That’s a tightrope walk, but not impossible. Still, the models aren’t too optimistic about Detroit’s chances to take the division crown:
Odds to Win NFC North:
- New York Times: 5%
- FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 9.5%
- ESPN: 6%
Super Bowl Dreams? Still Alive, Barely
Detroit’s Super Bowl odds have taken a tumble, but technically, they're still on the board.
- New York Times: <1% to win it all
- FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 3.7% to appear in the Super Bowl, 2.3% to win it (both down significantly)
It’s not quite time to start thinking about the draft, but the Lions are teetering on the edge. Still, this is a team that’s shown resilience all season. If they can string together three wins and get a little help, they’ll be right back in the dance.
For now, the message is simple: win out and hope the dominoes fall your way.