Lions’ Playoff Hopes Are Hanging On By a Thread - But They're Not Dead Yet
The Detroit Lions are still breathing - barely - as they head into their Week 17 showdown with the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day. But if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive past the holiday, they’ll need two things to go their way: a win on Thursday night and a little help from the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday.
Here’s the situation in plain terms: Detroit has to beat Minnesota to stay in the hunt. Then, they need Green Bay to lose to Baltimore in Week 17.
If both of those dominoes fall, the Lions will head into their Week 18 finale against the Bears with something to play for. Lose or tie on Thursday, though, and it’s lights out.
Let’s unpack what’s at stake, what needs to happen, and where the Lions sit in the NFC playoff picture heading into the final two weeks of the regular season.
The Path to the Playoffs: Narrow, But Still There
The Lions’ postseason path is razor-thin - just one scenario keeps them alive. Here’s how it breaks down:
- Detroit must win out. That means beating the Vikings on Thursday and the Bears in Week 18.
That would put them at 10-7.
- Green Bay must lose out. The Packers currently sit at 9-5-1.
If they lose both of their remaining games - Week 17 vs. Baltimore and Week 18 at Minnesota - they would finish 9-7-1.
That tie matters. The NFL treats ties as half a win, half a loss, so a 9-7-1 record edges out 10-7 in tiebreakers.
- No ties allowed for the Lions. Even a single tie would eliminate them. Same goes for the Packers - if they tie either of their final games, they clinch a playoff berth.
And that’s it. No wild permutations, no strength-of-schedule debates. Just two teams, two games each, and one very specific outcome that needs to play out.
The Odds: Not Great, But Not Zero
Let’s be real - the numbers aren’t in Detroit’s favor. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Lions have just a 6% chance of making the playoffs. ESPN Analytics gives them a 7% shot, while The Athletic’s model is a bit more pessimistic at 4%.
No matter which model you trust, the message is the same: The Lions are clinging to the edge of the playoff cliff, and one misstep sends them tumbling.
If they do sneak in, it’ll be as the NFC’s 7-seed, which means a wild-card matchup against the 2-seed - currently the Chicago Bears, who have already clinched a playoff berth and can lock up the NFC North with one more win or a Packers loss.
What’s Gone Wrong? A Late-Season Slide
The Lions were riding high earlier this season, but things have unraveled fast. They’ve dropped two straight - their first losing streak in over three years - and now find themselves needing a miracle just to stay alive.
The Week 16 loss to the Steelers was a gut punch. Coming off a shootout loss to the Rams the week prior, Detroit has seen its defense struggle and its offense sputter in key moments. Now, they’ll try to stop the bleeding against a Vikings team that’s won three straight and is suddenly surging behind undrafted rookie quarterback Max Brosmer.
Yes, Brosmer is raw. But he’s also confident, and Minnesota is playing with house money. That makes them dangerous.
The NFC Playoff Picture: Here’s Where Things Stand
As we head into Week 17, the NFC playoff picture is starting to crystallize - and the Lions are on the outside looking in.
NFC Standings, entering Week 17:
- Seahawks (12-3) - Clinched playoff berth
- Bears (11-4) - Clinched playoff berth
- Eagles (10-5) - Clinched NFC East
- Panthers (8-7) - NFC South leader
- 49ers (11-4) - Clinched playoff berth
Rams (11-4) - Clinched playoff berth
7.
Packers (9-5-1) - Currently hold final wild-card spot
8.
Lions (8-7) - Need help
9.
Buccaneers (7-8) - Still technically alive, but fading
So, yeah - Detroit’s margin for error is nonexistent. Every other team in the mix either has a better record or holds a tiebreaker. The only door left open is the one where the Packers stumble and the Lions sprint through it.
What’s Next: Game Times and Matchups
Here’s what’s on the horizon for both Detroit and Green Bay:
Lions Remaining Schedule:
- Week 17: at Vikings (Thursday, Dec. 25, 4:30 p.m.
ET, Netflix)
- Week 18: at Bears (Jan.
3-4, TBD)
Packers Remaining Schedule:
- Week 17: vs Ravens (Saturday, Dec. 27, 8 p.m.
ET, Peacock)
- Week 18: at Vikings (Jan.
3-4, TBD)
If Detroit loses or ties on Thursday night, they’re out. If Green Bay wins or ties in either of their final two games, they’re in. It’s that simple.
Looking Back: The Lions’ 2025 Rollercoaster
Detroit’s season has been a wild ride. They started off 5-1, including a 52-point explosion against the Bears and a convincing win over the Bengals.
But since their Week 8 bye, it’s been a different story. They’ve gone 3-6, with losses to playoff contenders like the Chiefs, Eagles, Rams, and Steelers.
Here’s the full journey:
- Week 1: L, 27-13 at Packers
- Week 2: W, 52-21 vs Bears
- Week 3: W, 38-30 at Ravens
- Week 4: W, 34-10 vs Browns
- Week 5: W, 37-24 at Bengals
- Week 6: L, 30-17 at Chiefs
- Week 7: W, 24-9 vs Buccaneers
- Week 8: Bye
- Week 9: L, 27-24 vs Vikings
- Week 10: W, 44-22 at Commanders
- Week 11: L, 16-9 at Eagles
- Week 12: W, 34-27 (OT) vs Giants
- Week 13: L, 31-24 vs Packers
- Week 14: W, 44-30 vs Cowboys
- Week 15: L, 41-34 at Rams
- Week 16: L, 29-24 vs Steelers
That’s a team that’s shown flashes - big offensive outputs, gritty wins - but just hasn’t put it together consistently enough down the stretch.
Bottom Line
The Lions are still in it. Barely. But they’ve got a chance - and that’s more than a lot of teams can say this time of year.
Thursday night in Minneapolis is do-or-die. Win, and they’ll be scoreboard-watching come Saturday night, hoping Lamar Jackson and the Ravens can do them a favor. Lose, and it’s another offseason of what-ifs and almosts.
One thing’s for sure: the road ahead is tough. But for Detroit, the playoffs start now.