The Detroit Lions are officially in scoreboard-watching mode.
After the Chicago Bears pulled off a dramatic overtime win over the Green Bay Packers on Saturday, Detroit’s path to the playoffs just got a whole lot narrower. What was once a simple “win out and you’re in” scenario is now tangled in a web of tiebreakers, division races, and scoreboard math.
The Lions still have a shot - even an outside chance at the NFC North title - but they’ll need help. A lot of it.
Let’s break down where things stand across the NFC and what needs to happen for the Lions to punch their ticket to the postseason.
The NFC Playoff Landscape: Who’s In and Who’s Fighting
First, here’s what we know: the Seahawks (12-3) and Rams (11-4) are already in. The Eagles (10-5) have locked up the NFC East. And one of the Buccaneers or Panthers - both sitting at 7-7 - will win the NFC South by default.
That leaves the wild-card race and the NFC North still up for grabs, with the Lions, Bears, Packers, and 49ers all in the mix. The Lions host the Steelers this afternoon, and every snap from here on out matters.
49ers (10-4) - The Team to Catch
Playoff odds: 98%
Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs.
Bears, vs. Seahawks
The 49ers are sitting in a strong position. They only need one win over their final three games to clinch a playoff berth. Whether it’s today at Indianapolis or in their final two home games, they control their fate.
From the Lions’ perspective, this is the team they need to falter - and not just stumble, but completely collapse. Because the Niners own all the tiebreakers over Detroit, the Lions would need San Francisco to lose out just to have a shot at leapfrogging them for a wild-card spot. That’s a long shot, but technically still alive.
San Francisco can lock up a playoff spot today with a win, a Lions loss, or if both teams tie. And if they win out, they could even take the NFC’s top seed.
Bears (11-4) - Surging at the Right Time
Playoff odds: 94%
Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Lions
Chicago is rolling. After a come-from-behind win over the Packers, the Bears have now won seven of their last eight.
But they’re not home free just yet. They’ll likely need one more win - either next week at San Francisco or in the Week 18 showdown against the Lions - to seal a playoff spot.
Here’s where it gets interesting: if the Lions win out and the Bears finish 11-6, Detroit would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker and jump them in the standings. That makes Week 18 a potential do-or-die matchup.
The Bears can clinch a playoff spot today if the Lions lose to the Steelers. They can also wrap up the NFC North with a win next week. According to simulations, Chicago has an 84% chance to win the division - but that number could shift quickly depending on what happens today in Detroit.
Packers (9-5-1) - Hanging Onto the Last Spot
Playoff odds: 78%
Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Vikings
Green Bay currently holds the NFC’s final wild-card spot, and thanks to their tie earlier in the season, they’ve got a bit of cushion. They also swept the Lions this year, but because of the tie, that head-to-head advantage may not even come into play.
The Packers likely need at least one win - maybe both - to stay in the playoff picture. If they win out and the Bears lose out, Green Bay would actually win the NFC North at 11-5-1, edging out both the Lions and Bears at 11-6.
The wild card here is quarterback Jordan Love, who exited Saturday’s game with a brain injury. Backup Malik Willis played admirably in relief, but Love’s status is something to monitor closely as the Packers prepare to host the Ravens next Saturday. With no extra rest days on the schedule, Green Bay could be rolling into a critical matchup without their starting QB.
Simulations give the Packers just an 8% chance to win the division - but with the right breaks, that door is still slightly ajar.
Lions (8-6) - Still Alive, But Needing Help
Playoff odds: 29%
Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears
For Detroit, the math is simple - and brutal. If they lose to the Steelers today, their playoff hopes could be hanging by a thread by nightfall.
If the Lions win out, they still need help. A Bears loss at San Francisco, a Packers loss in one of their final two games, or a full-on collapse by the 49ers (losing all three remaining games) would open the door.
But if Detroit goes 2-1? Their only path would require the Packers to lose both of their remaining games - a scenario that’s possible, but far from likely given Green Bay’s form and remaining schedule.
Anything less than 2-1, and the Lions are out. That makes today’s game against Pittsburgh a must-win, plain and simple.
There’s still a narrow path to the NFC North crown too. If the Lions win their final three, the Bears lose to the 49ers, and the Packers drop at least one more, Detroit would take the division and host a playoff game at Ford Field - likely as the No. 3 seed. Simulations give that scenario just an 8% chance, but hey, stranger things have happened.
Bottom Line
The Lions aren’t dead yet, but they’re walking a tightrope. Every game matters now - not just their own, but every snap in every NFC matchup with playoff implications. For a team that’s shown flashes of real potential this season, the next three weeks will be the ultimate test.
Win, and hope. That’s the mantra in Detroit.