A week ago, the idea of the Detroit Lions grabbing the NFC’s No. 1 seed sounded like a pipe dream. Even now, with their playoff odds sitting at 40% according to The Athletic’s simulator, it still feels like a long shot. But here we are in December, and the door isn’t shut - not by a long shot.
At 8-5, the Lions are gearing up for a pivotal Week 15 showdown against the 10-3 Los Angeles Rams. And while the odds of Detroit winning out sit at just 5%, the math says it’s possible. If they run the table - and get a little help - the road to Super Bowl LX could go through Ford Field.
Let’s break down what needs to happen for the Lions to pull off the improbable.
1. The Lions have to win out
Everything starts here. Detroit needs to take care of business in four straight games - something they haven’t done since Weeks 4 and 5, when they beat the Browns and Bengals. That’s a tall order, especially considering their recent trend of alternating wins and losses over their last eight games.
But there’s reason to believe they’re rounding into form. Last week’s 44-30 win over the Cowboys wasn’t just a bounce-back - it was a statement. The offense looked sharp, and if that version of the Lions shows up down the stretch, they’ll be a tough out.
The path? It starts this Sunday in L.A. against a Rams team that’s favored by six and considered by many to be the best in football. After that, it’s a home game against the 7-6 Steelers, a Christmas Day road trip to face the 5-8 Vikings on short rest, and a potentially frigid finale in Chicago against a 9-4 Bears team.
It’s a gauntlet, no doubt. But if Detroit runs it, they’ll be 12-5 - a record that’s been good enough for the No. 1 seed before.
The 49ers were 12-5 last year and earned the top spot in the NFC. The Titans did the same in the AFC back in 2021.
With so much parity in the conference and contenders beating up on each other, 12 wins might just be enough again.
2. The Rams need to lose in Seattle next Thursday
If the Lions beat the Rams this week, they’ll own the head-to-head tiebreaker. That’s huge. But to actually pass L.A. in the standings, Detroit needs the Rams to slip up again - and the most likely spot is next Thursday in Seattle.
After that, L.A. finishes with games against the Falcons and Cardinals. The Rams just beat Arizona by four touchdowns, and Atlanta hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut. So if they’re going to lose another one, it probably has to be in Seattle.
3. The Seahawks need to lose two of their final four
Seattle is tied with the Rams at 10-3, and if they win three of their last four, they’ll stay ahead of Detroit. But if both teams finish 12-5 and the Lions win out, Detroit would hold the common-opponent tiebreaker.
The Seahawks’ upcoming slate is a mixed bag. They’ve got the Colts - who are starting a backup quarterback - this week, then host the Rams, and finish on the road against the Panthers and 49ers. The Lions may actually need Seattle to beat the Rams in Week 16 to help their own cause, so the best-case scenario might be the Seahawks dropping their final two games.
4. The Packers need to lose twice
Even if the Lions run the table, they still need help to win the NFC North. That’s because the 9-3-1 Packers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker after sweeping the season series.
Green Bay’s final stretch is no cakewalk: they’re on the road the next two weeks against the Broncos and Bears, then close with the Ravens and Vikings. The Broncos are tied for the best record in football, the Bears just gave the Packers a scare at Lambeau, and the Ravens are still in the playoff hunt.
If the Packers stumble - especially this week in Denver - and the Lions can pull off an upset in L.A., things get interesting fast.
As for the Bears, they’re currently 9-4 and a game up on the Lions. They’ve got a tough three-game stretch coming up against the Browns, Packers, and 49ers.
If Detroit wins out, they’ll sweep the season series with Chicago and own the tiebreakers. But if they drop one, they’ll need someone else to knock the Bears down a peg to stay in the wild-card mix.
5. The 49ers need to lose twice
San Francisco might be flying under the radar, but they’re sitting at 9-4 and lurking in the NFC West. They’ve got a favorable schedule down the stretch - Titans, Colts, Bears, and Seahawks - and they’re coming off a bye.
The 49ers should be heavy favorites in their next two, especially this week against Tennessee. But if they somehow finish 12-5, they’d hold the conference record tiebreaker over the Lions. So if you’re scoreboard watching, you’re rooting for an upset or two along the way.
The Bottom Line
The Lions don’t control their own destiny when it comes to the 1-seed. But they’re not out of the picture either.
Win out, and they’re in the playoffs. Win out and get a few breaks, and suddenly the NFC might have to come through Detroit - a place that’s been starved for postseason success and is ready to erupt.
It’s a long shot, sure. But long shots are what December football is all about.