Lions Still Have a Clear Path to the Playoffs-But It’s Tightrope Time in Detroit
DETROIT - The Detroit Lions entered this season with eyes on the Super Bowl. Now, with just three games left, they’re teetering between a playoff push and a historic collapse. But here’s the good news: the door to the postseason is still wide open-if they handle their business.
At 8-6, the Lions no longer fully control their destiny, but they’re far from out of it. If they win out-beating the Steelers at home this weekend, followed by road wins against the Vikings and Bears-they’ll finish 11-6. And in most scenarios, that’s going to be enough to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
But here’s where it gets tricky. There is a path-however narrow-where Detroit could become the first team in the 17-game era to finish 11-6 and still miss the postseason. It would take a perfect storm of results across the NFC, but it’s not completely off the table.
Let’s break it down.
For the Lions to miss the playoffs at 11-6, all of the following would need to happen:
- Bears beat the Packers in Week 16 (in Chicago).
- Bears beat the 49ers in Week 17 (in San Francisco).
- Packers beat the Ravens in Week 17 (in Green Bay).
- Packers beat the Vikings in Week 18 (in Minnesota).
- 49ers beat the Colts in Week 16 (in Indianapolis) and/or beat the Seahawks in Week 18 (in San Francisco).
- Seahawks beat the Rams in Week 16 (in Seattle) and/or beat the Panthers in Week 17 (in Carolina) and/or beat the 49ers in Week 18 (in San Francisco).
That’s a lot of moving parts. And if all of those dominoes fall just right, here’s what the NFC playoff picture would look like:
- The Bears finish 12-5. They’re in.
- The Packers finish 11-5-1. That tie gives them the edge.
- The Seahawks would land somewhere between 12 and 14 wins, depending on how many of those three games they win. They’re in.
- The 49ers would have at least 11 wins-and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Detroit.
That’s the nightmare scenario. And while it’s technically possible, it’s also highly unlikely. You’re talking about six different outcomes, many of which would require road upsets or wins against elite opponents.
So yes, the Lions are in a tough spot. They no longer have the luxury of coasting into the postseason. But the math still favors them-if they can take care of their own business.
That starts this weekend at home against Pittsburgh. The Steelers are in their own playoff fight and won’t be an easy out.
After that, it’s two divisional road games to close the year-both of which will be emotional, physical battles. The Vikings are trying to salvage their season.
The Bears, if they stay hot, could be fighting for the same playoff spot as Detroit in Week 18.
This is where Dan Campbell’s message to the locker room becomes crystal clear: “Win and we’re in.” And while it’s not guaranteed, it’s close enough that the Lions can treat it like a playoff mindset right now.
Three games. Three wins. That’s the mission.
And if they pull it off, they’ll likely be dancing in January.