The Detroit Lions are still very much in the playoff picture - but with four games to go, their path to the postseason is anything but straightforward.
Thursday night’s 44-30 win over the Dallas Cowboys at Ford Field was a statement - not just in the scoreline, but in how the Lions executed. They improved to 8-5, a record that would typically put a team in solid playoff position. But in this year’s NFC, where the race is tighter than ever, Detroit finds itself just outside the playoff cut line, sitting as the No. 8 seed in a conference where only seven teams get in.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Lions currently have a 54% chance of making the playoffs. That’s essentially a coin flip. They’re third in the NFC North behind the Green Bay Packers and the division-leading Chicago Bears - who have playoff probabilities of 88% and 74%, respectively.
Other models are even less optimistic. The Athletic pegs Detroit’s postseason odds at 45%, with the Packers at 91% and the Bears still holding at 74%. It’s a reminder of how slim the margins are, especially with tiebreakers and head-to-head matchups looming large.
One game to keep an eye on this weekend: Bears vs. Packers.
That outcome could have a direct impact on Detroit’s path forward. A loss by either team gives the Lions a clearer target in the division race.
Right now, though, the wild-card route looks like the more realistic path - and even that’s a steep climb.
The current NFC wild-card spots belong to the Seahawks, Packers, and 49ers - all of whom are sitting pretty with at least an 88% playoff chance per Next Gen Stats, and 91% or better according to The Athletic. That means the Lions will almost certainly need to leapfrog at least one of those teams to get in, and that’s no small task.
So what’s the cleanest path for Detroit? Win out.
Their remaining schedule is no cakewalk, though. It features road trips to face the No. 2-seeded Rams on December 14 and the top-seeded Bears in the regular-season finale (set for January 3 or 4).
If the Lions can run the table and finish 12-5 - with wins over both the Rams and Bears - they’ll have a strong case for a playoff berth. That kind of finish would likely come with the tiebreakers they need, especially if other contenders stumble.
But if they drop even one of those final four games and finish 11-6? Then things get murkier.
At that point, Detroit would be relying on help - needing one or more teams ahead of them to falter late in the year. It’s possible, but far from ideal.
And while the NFC North crown isn’t mathematically out of reach, it’s a long shot. The Lions would need both the Packers and Bears to lose at least three of their final games, while Detroit would have to win out. The Athletic gives that scenario less than a 1% chance.
As for the big picture? A Super Bowl run is still technically on the table, but the odds are steep.
The Athletic gives the Lions just a 2% chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February. It’s not impossible - but let’s just say the math isn’t in their favor right now.
The team with the best shot at Super Bowl 60, according to The Athletic? That would be the 11-2 New England Patriots. Yes, really.
For now, the Lions are in a familiar spot - fighting for every inch, with a fanbase that’s seen enough heartbreak to know nothing is guaranteed. But with four games left and everything still on the line, Detroit has a chance. And in December, that’s all you can ask for.