The line for Thursday night’s Lions-Bills matchup has already made a noticeable move, and Buffalo is the team drawing the heavier market respect.
What opened as a 3-point spread for the Bills at home has climbed to Buffalo -5.5, a jump that stands out this early in the week. The total has also ticked up, moving from 52.5 to 54.5, which now makes it the highest total on the Week 2 board.
That kind of shift is hard to ignore, especially with no major injury news pushing it. DraftKings says 80 percent of the moneyline bets and 64 percent of the spread bets are backing Buffalo. The Bills rewarded bettors in Week 1 by beating and covering against the Houston Texans, while Detroit won in overtime against the New Orleans Saints but failed to cover.
Oddsmakers are clearly expecting points on Thursday. Detroit put up 61 in Week 1, and Buffalo scored 67, so the market has already adjusted toward another fast-paced, high-scoring game.
SI Betting senior editor Iain MacMillan took the other side earlier this week in his Road to 272 column, calling the Lions his best bet as underdogs.
“As tempting as it is to back the Bills after how both teams looked in the opening week, I have to do my best not to overreact to a one-game sample size and stick to my belief that the Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL. Their metrics were elite last season, but injuries and poor variance led to them missing the playoffs.”
MacMillan also pointed to Buffalo’s defense after its Week 1 showing against Houston.
“There’s no denying that Josh Allen is once again going to be an MVP candidate, but let's not overlook the fact that their defense allowed the Texans to rack up yards and points against them last week. Their defensive roster is completely different from a year ago, so I didn't know what to expect from them this season, but ranking 19th in opponent EPA per play and 22nd in opponent success rate isn't a good start.”
For MacMillan, the public money leaning Buffalo may be creating an opportunity on Detroit.
“The public clearly is buying the Bills in this game, but at some point the Lions and Jared Goff are getting a few too many points considering how explosive their offense has been in the Dan Campbell era.”
The spread will be worth watching as kickoff gets closer Thursday night. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Lions Face A Prime-Time Problem As Jahmyr Gibbs Heads To Buffalo
The Lions are heading into a short week with a little less stability up front than they probably wanted. Detroit visits Buffalo on Thursday night in Week 2, and the matchup comes with both teams sitting at 1-0 after opening wins, the Bills over Houston and the Lions in overtime against New Orleans. It will also be Buffalos home opener at the new Highmark Stadium, with the game set for Prime Video, which gives the stage an early-season feel before either side has much time to settle in.
For Detroit, the bigger concern may be how it handles the trenches without starting left guard Christian Mahogany and right tackle Blake Miller, both out because of injuries. That puts even more attention on a Lions offense that is already expected to lean on Jahmyr Gibbs, especially in a game that could turn physical quickly under the lights in Buffalo. Prime-time road games are one thing when a line is intact, and another when the protection and run-game pieces are already shifting before kickoff. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Could Catch A Break In Buffalo's First Outdoor Test
The Lions are heading into one of the more interesting road setups on their schedule, with Buffalo set to host them at the Bills new Highmark Stadium, a building that still does not have a roof. Forecast rain before kickoff could turn the surface slick and make this as much a test of footing and ball security as it is of talent, which is exactly the kind of wrinkle that can change how both teams script their first few drives.
For Detroit, the weather could tilt the game away from a pure trench battle and toward a more pass-heavy approach if the ground game becomes harder to trust. Wet conditions always raise the stakes on exchanges, cuts and catches, and if the field plays fast but slippery, the Lions may have to lean on cleaner operation through the air while both sides try to avoid the kind of mistakes that rain can manufacture. [Read more 🡒]
Lions Stars Got Snubbed After Putting Detroit In The Spotlight
Week 1 put Detroit in the national spotlight in more ways than one, and the Lions had more than enough star power to earn some leaguewide recognition. Jahmyr Gibbs was electric on the ground for Detroit, piling up 156 yards and two touchdowns, while Aidan Hutchinson kept making his presence felt on defense as the Lions opened the season with a performance that looked every bit like a team built to matter.
The weekly awards, though, went elsewhere. Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week over Gibbs after rushing for 124 yards and three touchdowns, and Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Zack Baun took Defensive Player of the Week ahead of Hutchinson. It leaves Detroit with the kind of early-season slight that tends to stick in a locker room, especially when the production was right there for everyone to see. [Read more 🡒]