Victor Wembanyama is already being treated like the answer in ESPN’s latest Summer Forecast for the 2026-27 NBA MVP race.
The San Antonio Spurs star didn’t just land in the conversation - he blew past it. ESPN’s top five most likely MVP contenders for that season include Miami Heat’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Los Angeles Lakers’ Luka Doncic, Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic, and Wembanyama.
The gap in ESPN’s voting is enormous: Wembanyama checked in with 102 points, while Jokic followed at 31. Doncic earned 28, Gilgeous-Alexander 26, and Antetokounmpo finished with 8.
That kind of separation says plenty about where ESPN sees this race headed. Wembanyama already gave the Spurs elite defensive impact and then raised the ceiling even further with his offensive breakout in the playoffs. He’s the rare young star who can make a team’s identity bend around him on both ends.
There’s also the reality of how MVP voting works. Voter fatigue and legacy considerations can become part of the picture, especially for names like Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Antetokounmpo.
Another trophy would push those players deeper into Top 20 all-time conversations, and that can make the argument more complicated. Wembanyama doesn’t have that baggage.
The projection ESPN is leaning on only strengthens the case. On a per-36-minute basis for 2026-27, Wembanyama is forecast to post numbers that look almost absurd: 29.1 points, a .507 field-goal percentage, .357 from three, .830 at the line, 4.1 assists, 13.4 rebounds, 3.9 blocks, 1.3 steals, 3.2 turnovers, 20.2 field-goal attempts, and a .192 win shares per 48 minutes mark.
Those numbers would stand out anywhere, but they look even louder next to his own track record. ESPN’s projection would give him career highs in points, three-point percentage, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals. His previous marks include 25 points per game, 35.2% from three, 3.9 assists per game, 11.5 rebounds, 3.8 blocks, and 1.2 steals.
Of course, the whole thing still comes back to availability. Wembanyama’s path to a first MVP award depends on more than talent and production. It also depends on minutes under coach Mitch Johnson, the kind of shot diet he takes, and whether he clears the 65-game threshold required for league awards.
Health has already interrupted his rise once. Wembanyama played a career-high 33.2 minutes in the 2024-25 season, but that was also the year he was diagnosed with a right shoulder deep vein thrombosis, which led the Spurs to rule him out for the season.
So the headline here is simple: ESPN sees Wembanyama as the runaway favorite, and the only thing standing between him and a first NBA MVP is whether his body cooperates long enough to let the rest of the league catch up. If he gets there, he’d become just the third player in Spurs history to win the award, joining Tim Duncan and David Robinson.
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ESPNs B grade reflected the appeal and the caution in equal measure, praising the value of the addition while noting the questions that come with his game. Denver gets a player who can create offense, but the fit still comes with concerns about spacing and defense, the kind of tradeoff that can help in some matchups and complicate things in others. [Read more 🡒]