The NBA MVP race just got another shakeup, and this time it’s the reigning king who’s sidelined.
Oklahoma City announced Tuesday that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, last season’s MVP and the current frontrunner to repeat, will be out through the All-Star break with an abdominal strain. It’s a tough blow for both the Thunder and Gilgeous-Alexander, but the timing could’ve been a lot worse.
With the All-Star break built into the schedule, OKC only has 10 games in February-split evenly before and after the break. That eight-day pause gives Shai some valuable recovery time without piling up too many missed games.
Up to this point, SGA has been a workhorse-suiting up for 49 of the Thunder’s 51 games as they’ve surged to the top of the NBA standings. Even if he misses a handful more, he’s still well within the 65-game threshold required for MVP eligibility. While he was selected for the All-Star Game, it’s likely he’ll sit that one out, prioritizing health over hardware for now.
The Thunder, meanwhile, are in a strong position to weather the storm. They’ve built a six-game cushion over the Spurs and a seven-game lead on the Nuggets in the Western Conference. That breathing room matters, especially with Denver still trying to find its rhythm after Nikola Jokic’s recent absence.
Jokic, who was leading the MVP race before his own injury, missed 16 games earlier this season. Denver managed to stay afloat during that stretch with a respectable 10-6 mark, but they’ve stumbled a bit since his return, going 1-2 as he works back into peak form. The margin for error is razor-thin now-Jokic can only miss one more game this season to remain eligible for MVP consideration.
That eligibility factor is a major storyline. Jokic’s odds have dipped, but not dramatically.
He’s still sitting with the second-best MVP odds, and with SGA temporarily sidelined, the door is cracked open. Gilgeous-Alexander remains the betting favorite at -220, but Jokic has climbed to +350 in the latest MVP projections.
Further down the board, Luka Dončić and Cade Cunningham are still in the mix, but barely. Both are listed as longshots, with odds north of +1000. They’d need a seismic shift in both performance and narrative to leapfrog the top two.
The real intrigue now is how the MVP race might be shaped by the final 20 or so games of the season. If SGA ends up playing around 70 games and Jokic lands at 66, the debate about who’s been more impactful will only intensify. Both players have carried their teams through adversity, both have MVP pedigrees, and both have fanbases ready to make their case.
And with Jokic, this kind of late-season drama has become something of a tradition. Every year, it seems like his MVP candidacy hangs in the balance until the final week.
This year? It might come down to who finishes stronger-and who stays healthier.
The MVP race is far from over. It’s just heating up.