If the Rockets are going to climb out of the pack in the Western Conference, they first have to get past three teams that sit directly in their path: Minnesota, Denver and the Lakers.
The top of the West already looks pretty straightforward. The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are the heavy favorites to meet in the Western Conference Finals, in either order.
Even with Oklahoma City trimming some depth this offseason, it’s still hard to poke holes in that projection. San Antonio, meanwhile, added useful forward Tobias Harris for nothing.
That leaves Houston in the next tier, trying to become the clear best of the rest.
Minnesota may be the most immediate challenge for that spot. The Rockets went 1-2 against the Wolves last season, but all three games were close, including one that went to overtime.
The Timberwolves look different now after bringing in highlight reel LaMelo Ball to help get Anthony Edwards off the ball more, but they also lost major frontcourt pieces in Julius Randle and Naz Reid. Houston has a defender in Amen Thompson who can at least bother Edwards, while Minnesota still has Jaden McDaniels to deal with Kevin Durant.
The Rockets also look steadier on paper with the returns of Fred Van Vleet and Steven Adams, plus Marcus Smart. Minnesota feels like the more volatile team, and that makes this matchup a major one if Edwards and Ball click quickly.
Denver is another test, and the Rockets are coming off a season in which they dropped three of four to the Nuggets. That said, Denver may be a little easier to push around now.
Tim Hardaway Jr., who finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting, is gone, as is rising forward Peyton Watson. DeMar DeRozan is the new veteran scoring piece, though it’s still hard to know exactly how that fit will look.
As always, everything starts with Nikola Jokic. Houston does have more size behind Alperen Sengun now, with Adams and Clint Capela in the mix, but Sengun is the one who has to raise his level.
He doesn’t need to fully equal Jokic, but he does need to get close.
Then there’s Los Angeles, where the Rockets already know how painful that matchup can be. Houston went 1-2 against the Lakers in the regular season and then unraveled in a 4-of-6 first-round loss, even with Luka Doncic sidelined.
This time, Doncic is healthy, LeBron James is gone, and more is being asked of Austin Reaves along with high-priced newcomer Walker Kessler. On paper, Houston looks stronger overall than the Lakers.
But Doncic changes everything. He could be on track for an easy scoring title, and James’ weak on-off number points to the possibility that Los Angeles might actually function better in some ways without him.
In Other News...
Nuggets Fans Will Love Spencer Jones Mindset Behind His New Deal
Spencer Jones is approaching his new Nuggets deal with the kind of perspective that tends to resonate in a market that appreciates role players who know exactly who they are. The restricted free agent signed a two-year, $12 million contract in Denver, and instead of talking about luxury upgrades or lifestyle inflation, he framed the money as a chance to build something that lasts well beyond basketball.
Jones said that after taxes and fees, the annual salary leaves him with a little more than $3 million to work with, and his plan is to think like an investor first and a spender second. He spoke about putting a significant portion of it toward venture opportunities and savings, with the bigger goal being financial freedom and long-term wealth rather than a short-term change in how he lives. [Read more 🡒]
Nuggets Bench Suddenly Has One Loss Fans Should Worry About Most
The Nuggets spent the offseason reshaping the back end of the roster, and not all of the changes have carried the same weight. Jonas Valanciunas was let go to clear salary cap space, with Marvin Bagley coming in to fill the opening, while Bones Hyland and Tim Hardaway Jr. also moved on as Denver trimmed and reworked its depth chart. For a team that has lived on balance and flexibility, the bench turnover is the kind of thing that can look manageable at first glance.
Peyton Watson is the departure that stands out most for Denvers rotation, especially after his move to Cleveland in exchange for a first-round pick. The Nuggets did add DeMar DeRozan, but they have not made a substantial move to replace what Watson brought to the second unit, leaving a familiar question hanging over the roster construction. If the front office believes the answers are already in house, the season will have to prove it. [Read more 🡒]
Nuggets May Finally Be Ready To Ditch A Desperate Lineup
The Nuggets spent much of last season chasing a fix for the minutes Nikola Jokic spent on the bench, and it pushed David Adelman into a small-ball look that never really felt like a choice so much as a survival tactic. Denver has since tried to address that problem by bringing in Marvin Bagley III and drafting rookie Trevon Brazile, with the hope that the second unit can play with more size and athleticism instead of constantly improvising around the margins.
There is still sorting out to do, of course, with rotation spots and roles for players such as Spencer Jones, Alpha Diallo and DeMar DeRozan still taking shape. But the bigger question for Denver is whether the new pieces finally give Adelman enough flexibility to move away from the desperate lineups that were required when the offense and defense both went flat without Jokic, and whether the bench can now look more like a normal NBA group. [Read more 🡒]