The Denver Nuggets wanted leverage in the Peyton Watson talks. Instead, they may be learning just how little of it they actually have.
Denver has been open to listening on a sign-and-trade while stuck in a contract extension standoff with Watson, but the return has apparently been underwhelming. The Nuggets were hoping to replenish the cupboard with at least one first-round pick, and preferably two. So far, that kind of payoff hasn’t shown up.
According to HoopsHype and Michael Scotto, the market has been colder than Denver likely expected.
"As of now, the Bucks, Cavaliers, Hawks, and Clippers have not offered a first-round pick to the Nuggets in sign-and-trade discussions for Watson, league sources told HoopsHype," Scotto said.
That’s a sharp drop from where the Nuggets initially set the price. Since sign-and-trade chatter picked up around Watson, Denver has maintained that it would take at least two first-round picks to move the unrestricted free agent. More recently, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that the asking price had fallen to one.
The gap between what Denver wants and what the suitors are willing to pay says plenty about the situation. The other teams know the Nuggets are staring at a bad spot with the luxury tax and the second apron, especially after re-signing fellow restricted free agent forward Spencer Jones and moving above that threshold. From the outside, this looks like a classic squeeze play.
There’s no real incentive for the Bucks, Cavaliers, Hawks, or Clippers to overpay just to help Denver out of its cap bind. They can wait, hold firm, and see whether the Nuggets eventually get uncomfortable enough to settle for less - maybe even second-round picks.
And that pressure is tied to the money Denver is facing if Watson stays. The Nuggets have continued to say they want to keep him, but the tax bill attached to that decision would be massive.
If Watson simply signs the $6.5 million qualifying offer, Denver would be looking at a $112 million tax bill for the 2026-27 season. That would be $44 million more than the team is currently projected to pay.
That number is hard to ignore for any franchise, but especially one that has already paid approximately $59 million in luxury taxes total.
So this standoff has all the ingredients for someone to blink. The cleanest outcome for Denver would be to just absorb the tax hit this year, something the Kroenke Sports Entertainment ownership group can certainly afford. But that doesn’t sound like the direction this is headed.
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Watsons camp is believed to be aiming well above the offers that have come his way, which is part of what makes this a tricky negotiation for both sides. Cleveland has also been linked to a framework involving Max Strus and draft compensation, but the real question is whether the sides can bridge the gap without either team backing away from a move that could reshape its wing rotation. [Read more 🡒]