The restricted free-agent market is mostly settled, but three notable names are still hanging out there: Jalen Duren, Bennedict Mathurin and Peyton Watson.
Watson’s situation could be the first domino to fall. The Nuggets still have a decision to make on Spencer Jones’ two-year offer sheet, and later tonight they’ll learn whether they keep him by matching or let him head to the Thunder. If Denver does match Jones’ reported two-year, $12MM deal and then re-sign Watson to a contract that starts at $23MM in 2026/27, Bobby Marks of ESPN said the team’s projected payroll would land at $246MM, with an estimated luxury tax bill of $231MM.
That kind of number would push Denver past the second tax apron, set at $221.7MM, which brings its own roster-building restrictions. But the bigger issue, at least from an ownership standpoint, is the tax bill itself. Marks also noted that the Nuggets have already paid $53MM in tax penalties since 2002/03.
Even with that financial squeeze, Tony Jones of The Athletic reported on July 17 that Denver feels good about its chances of keeping Watson, whom the team values “significantly.” The Nuggets are comfortable letting the process unfold, and that can take time. In 2025, four of the top restricted free agents stayed unsigned until September when no cap-space team stepped in with an offer sheet.
Watson has drawn interest from the Bucks, Clippers and Hawks, but all three teams are over the cap, so a sign-and-trade would almost certainly be required. One report on Watson said the Clippers were focusing on him ahead of Mathurin, though Denver’s asking price in sign-and-trade talks was described as steep enough that Los Angeles could shift its attention back to re-signing Mathurin. As of now, Mathurin hasn’t been linked to any rival teams.
His situation may also be tied to the NBA’s investigation into the Clippers over an alleged salary-cap circumvention involving a no-show endorsement deal with Kawhi Leonard. The trade sending the two-time Finals MVP back to Toronto is also waiting on the outcome of that probe.
Duren, meanwhile, entered free agency with the strongest profile of the group. He was No. 1 on our list of the top 50 free agents, met with the Lakers and Kings on sign-and-trade possibilities soon after free agency opened, and then watched the Lakers acquire Walker Kessler in a sign-and-trade with Utah. Detroit, according to reports, isn’t interested in Kings big man Domantas Sabonis or any other sign-and-trade framework.
The 23-year-old won’t turn 23 until November, but his résumé is already loaded from last season. He made his first All-Star team, finished second in Most Improved Player voting and earned All-NBA third-team honors after establishing himself as the second-best player on a 60-win team. That All-NBA selection made him eligible for a max deal starting at 30% of the salary cap rather than 25%.
Even so, the Pistons reportedly haven’t put a 25% max on the table, much less a 30% one. And because no rival team has the cap room to sign him to an offer sheet Detroit could match, Duren’s leverage has been limited.
His main card to play is the qualifying offer worth $9.6MM, which would let him hit unrestricted free agency next year. That would be a gamble, since it would mean passing on what should be a rich deal from Detroit, but it remains on the table if talks go sideways.
For what it’s worth, The Athletic asked 13 rival executives whether a four- or five-year deal at 25% max would be “fair” value for Duren, and none said yes. The answer might look very different if the same question were put to 13 agents instead.
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Nuggets May Be Headed For A Jokic Era Decision Nobody Wanted
The Nuggets are staring at one of those front-office problems that looks tidy on paper and messy everywhere else. With Nikola Jokic headed toward another extension and the club already carrying heavy salary commitments, Denvers path forward is being shaped less by basketball fit than by the hard edges of the tax system. Even the smaller decisions matter here, because every added dollar can ripple into a much bigger bill.
What makes the situation so delicate is how quickly the books tighten if the roster stays intact. Denver already has major money lined up for the next few seasons, and the pressure of staying under the harshest tax thresholds is pushing the franchise toward choices it would rather avoid. The question now is whether the Nuggets can keep their core together and still manage the cap, or whether the financial squeeze forces a more painful reset than anyone around the team wanted to contemplate. [Read more 🡒]