The Denver Nuggets are not at the Milwaukee Bucks’ point yet, but the warning signs are loud enough to hear from a distance.
Denver has already taken a step back since winning its first NBA championship in the 2022-23 season. Three seasons later, the Nuggets were knocked out in the first round by the Minnesota Timberwolves. That’s the kind of slide that should have everyone in the building paying close attention to what happened in Milwaukee after its title run in the 2020-21 season.
The Bucks looked like a model franchise after their championship. Then the cracks started to show.
By their third year after the title, they were out in the first round for a second straight season. Things only got uglier from there, and this offseason they had to move on from franchise centerpiece Giannis Antetokounmpo to begin a rebuild.
Denver has already walked into some of the same traps.
Milwaukee’s chain reaction began when it sent out future draft capital to land Jrue Holiday in 2020. Holiday filled the missing piece role perfectly, and the Bucks won the title. But that move came with a long-term cost: less flexibility in future trades and less depth down the line.
That part should sound familiar to Nuggets fans. The good news for Denver is that it appears to be recognizing the need to rebuild draft capital before the situation gets completely out of hand.
But the Bucks also showed how quickly a championship core can become expensive and brittle. They paid their title rotation with big extensions, then kept running into the luxury tax threshold and the fines that came with it.
The result was a roster that slid backward in the playoffs before eventually becoming too thin to compete, missing the playoffs entirely this past year. At one point, Milwaukee was paying more in luxury tax fines in some seasons than Denver has paid in its entire history.
The Nuggets are getting uncomfortably close to that territory. They have two open roster spots and are projected to carry a tax bill of approximately $68.6 million. Because of where they sit under the NBA’s roster rules, they can only add free agents on minimum contracts, which sharply limits any real upgrade.
At some point, Denver is going to have to make a major trade to get its finances under control. The Bucks eventually went that route too, but by then the damage had already piled up. The combination of expensive payroll and no young talent coming in pushed Milwaukee toward the Giannis trade and a full reset.
For the Nuggets, the hard part is obvious: if they need to make a big move, it cannot be Nikola Jokic.
Joker has said repeatedly that he wants to stay in Denver. If he signs the contract extension next summer that he has said he will, he would also have a good chance of getting a no-trade clause.
That would make a Jokic deal even harder to imagine. Still, Denver would likely need to move someone else for draft capital eventually.
The lesson from Milwaukee is plain. Ignore the warning signs long enough, and a champion can turn into a cautionary tale fast. The Nuggets are not there yet, but the path is starting to look familiar.
In Other News...
Nuggets May Face A Brutal Choice On One Promising Young Wing
Jonathan Kumingas restricted free agency is already drawing plenty of attention, with the Cavaliers and Lakers both in the mix and Cleveland planning a meeting to explore a sign-and-trade. Kuminga is reportedly looking for a deal that tops $20 million annually, which has pushed the market into territory where teams are weighing not just talent, but fit, cost and the ripple effects of any move they make.
For Denver, the more uncomfortable part is that Watsons name has started to surface in the same kind of trade chatter. The young wing is expected to command an $80 million contract, and while that kind of commitment reflects real belief in his upside, it also puts the Nuggets in the middle of a decision that could force them to choose between keeping a promising piece and navigating the realities of a pricey roster. [Read more 🡒]
Christian Braun Is Suddenly Caught In Denvers Biggest Wing Debate
Christian Braun was supposed to be part of Denvers wing solution, not the latest reason the position feels unsettled. He signed a five-year extension last October, a move that signaled real confidence in his long-term fit, but his play has dipped since then and the scrutiny around him has only grown as the Nuggets sort through the rest of their wing rotation.
Peyton Watsons contract situation has only sharpened the focus on Braun, because Denver may be forced to make a call on how it wants to build that part of the roster. For Braun, the timing is awkward and the pressure is obvious: the money is in place, the expectations are higher, and the Nuggets need more from him if he is going to quiet the debate that has suddenly landed on his shoulders. [Read more 🡒]
Nuggets May Have Finally Found An Answer To Their Biggest Defensive Flaw
The Nuggets have spent the past two seasons trying to patch a defensive rating problem that showed up again in the playoffs, and this summer they added a player whose value is supposed to come on the less glamorous end of the floor. The hope is that a rookie free agent with a reputation for perimeter defense can give Denver a different kind of lineup option, one that helps the team survive against quicker guards, bigger wings and the constant pick-and-roll stress that has made life difficult.
His track record overseas suggests there is real reason to believe in the fit, even if the offensive side of the equation is still a work in progress. Denver is betting that Nikola Jokic can smooth over those limitations by creating easy looks, while the real test will be whether this new defensive piece can handle the kind of assignments the Nuggets have lacked when games tighten and matchups start to dictate everything. [Read more 🡒]