In the world of NBA MVP predictions, few tools are as insightful as Tim Bontemps’ straw poll. This tradition, conducted by the ESPN analyst, involves polling 100 prospective voters from across the nation to simulate the MVP voting process. It's a fascinating way to gauge the race throughout the season.
The initial poll of the season dropped just before Christmas, before Nikola Jokic’s knee injury threw a wrench into the works. At that time, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was leading the charge, albeit by a narrow margin. He secured 57 first-place votes, while Jokic garnered 42, with Shai leading in total points, 865 to 822.
Fast forward to the latest poll, and despite some challenges for OKC and Shai missing a few games, his lead has expanded significantly. Jokic’s absence for 16 consecutive games has left the Nuggets struggling to find their rhythm, allowing Shai to widen the gap. He now boasts 78 first-place votes and 930 points, while Jokic remains in second with 18 first-place votes and 700 points.
The Thunder recently announced that Shai will be sidelined for at least another week. OKC's record stands at 17-13 over their last 30 games, and if Shai misses more time, he could brush up against the 65-game minimum requirement for MVP eligibility.
Meanwhile, Jokic and the Nuggets haven’t capitalized on this opportunity. They've stumbled to a 2-5 record in their last seven outings, with Jokic not quite looking himself during crucial moments.
While still technically in the race, Jokic can afford to miss only one more game this season. Given his recent performance post-All-Star break, resting him might be a strategic move, even if it means sacrificing eligibility.
If both Shai and Jokic miss the 65-game threshold, the MVP race could take a wild turn. Players like Cade Cunningham, Victor Wembanyama, Luka Doncic, and Jaylen Brown are next in line, but they seem a step behind the frontrunners.
This subplot promises to keep fans on the edge of their seats as the season unfolds. While seeing Jokic secure a fourth MVP would be legendary, it would require a perfect storm of events in the coming months. Stay tuned-this MVP race is shaping up to be one for the ages.