The number next to the Denver Nuggets’ 2026-27 win total is sitting at 49.5, and that feels a little light if you’ve watched what happens when Nikola Jokic is on the floor with even a workable group around him.
Denver won 54 games in 2025-26 despite its starters missing a combined 136 games because of injury. That’s the first thing worth remembering.
The second is how good the Nuggets were when that core actually played together. In just 23 games with Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Christian Braun, and Jamal Murray, Denver went 18-5, a 64-win pace.
That’s why the projection looks beatable. The offseason has brought some turnover, sure, but not enough to make a massive dent in what Jokic tends to create.
The Nuggets were also 8-4 with Jokic, Murray, Johnson, Spencer Jones, and Peyton Watson, which still works out to a 55-win pace. And even with Jalen Pickett starting 18 games after the Nuggets declined his team option and the Los Angeles Clippers picked him up as a two-way player, Denver went 11-7, a 50-win pace.
Put enough competent pieces next to Jokic, and the wins keep coming.
You have to rewind to 2021-22 to find the last time Denver finished below 50 wins. Even then, the Nuggets still won 48.
This offseason, Denver lost Tim Hardaway Jr. to the Miami Heat when free agency opened. The team also moved on from Pickett and Jonas Valanciunas and has not brought back Bruce Brown. In their place are a 29-year-old rookie defensive specialist in Alpha Diallo, a 27-year-old former No. 2 overall pick in Marvin Bagley III, and the athletic 23-year-old rookie second-round pick Trevon Brazile.
The fit is not as shaky as it might look at first glance. Bagley brings the same offensive ceiling Valanciunas did, with more athleticism and more defensive upside.
Diallo, at least from the game film I’ve watched on him, is a better defender than Brown. Brazile can space the floor and protect the rim.
And Julian Strawther already showed he can handle a larger role, starting 14 games last season while averaging 14.8 points on 48.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% from three. That should keep the Hardaway minutes from becoming a problem.
The real question is Tyus Jones backing up Murray. If Murray stays healthy - and if that starting group stays intact - there’s no reason to think Jokic won’t drag that bench to more than 50 wins. The deeper concern is the lack of experience at the end of the roster, but Denver’s best five is still as strong as any in the league when it’s together.
And that’s the entire bet here. Health matters.
It always does. But if the Nuggets get enough of it, 49.5 is a number Jokic can make look too small.
With him carrying even more of the load, Denver has a path not just to clearing the line, but to threatening last season’s 54 wins again.
In Other News...
Nuggets Fans Have Every Reason To Worry About Denvers Cap Crunch
Denvers roster math is getting harder to ignore, and Peyton Watsons departure only sharpens the concern. The Nuggets were already navigating a tight salary picture, with contract commitments piling up around a core that still has to be built out if the team wants to stay competitive in the West. Losing a young piece like Watson leaves another empty spot to fill, and it comes at a time when every move seems tied to the same financial squeeze.
Christian Brauns long-term extension has only added to the pressure on Denvers front office, especially as questions linger about whether the price tag will match the production going forward. For a team trying to balance present expectations with future flexibility, that kind of commitment matters. The Nuggets now have less room to maneuver, and the next roster decision could say a lot about how much risk they are willing to take to keep this group intact. [Read more 🡒]
Cavaliers Just Got Pulled Into A Move With Bigger NBA Stakes
Peyton Watson is on the move, and the ripple effects of the five-team trade that sent him from Denver to Cleveland could reach well beyond the original deal. The Nuggets were part of a sprawling transaction involving multiple draft picks and player movement, a reminder that summer roster work can still reshape both present depth and future flexibility in one sweep.
Now the bigger question around Denver is what comes next, especially with DeMar DeRozan suddenly on the free-agent market after being waived by Sacramento. The six-time All-Star would give Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray another polished scorer to lean on, and for a Nuggets team still searching for the right balance around its stars, the timing makes the possibility more than just a footnote. [Read more 🡒]
David Adelmans Bench Decisions Could Make Or Break Denvers Depth
With the Nuggets roster turning over around him, David Adelman is being asked to solve one of the trickiest parts of coaching in the NBA: keeping the floor steady when the starters sit. Denver lost key rotation pieces and now has to fold in younger, less experienced options, including rookie Alpha Diallo and second-round pick Trevon Brazile, while Tyus Jones is penciled in as the backup point guard. For a team that expects to play deep into the spring, those non-star minutes can matter as much as any late-game possession.
Adelmans task is less about simply finding bodies and more about finding the right pairings, especially on a bench that has to hold up defensively without giving away too much offense. The Nuggets will also lean on assistant coach Dave Joerger to help build out the second unit, giving Denver a little more structure as the rotation takes shape. The early read on how those combinations work could go a long way toward determining whether the Nuggets depth becomes a strength or a concern. [Read more 🡒]