Texans Eye Next Step After Breakout Season, But Super Bowl Odds Say "Not So Fast"
After a 12-5 campaign that turned heads across the league, the Houston Texans are stepping into the 2026 offseason with something they haven’t had in a while-expectations. With a young core led by head coach DeMeco Ryans and franchise quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans aren’t just hoping to stay relevant-they’re aiming to contend.
Let’s start with the basics: Houston is the early favorite to win the AFC South, according to BetMGM, with odds sitting at +160. That’s a strong vote of confidence for a team that technically didn’t win the division last year-the Jaguars did, with 13 wins-but still managed to punch a ticket to the postseason. Jacksonville trails closely behind at +175, while the Colts and Titans are further back at +350 and +600, respectively.
That pecking order makes sense when you look at what Houston’s bringing back. The defense, which was a major reason for the team’s resurgence, returns 10 starters under contract.
Continuity matters, especially for a unit that played fast, physical, and opportunistic football under Ryans. On offense, the return of wide receiver Tank Dell adds another weapon to an already potent attack, assuming Stroud continues to protect the football and avoid costly turnover-prone outings.
But while Houston may be trending upward in the division, the national picture tells a different story.
The Super Bowl Dream? Still a Long Shot
Despite their promising trajectory, the Texans are still seen as a step or two away from the league’s elite. Their odds to win the AFC sit at +1000, which ranks eighth among conference teams. And when it comes to winning the whole thing at SoFi Stadium next February, Houston is tied for the 12th-best odds at +2000.
It’s a sobering reminder of just how crowded the top of the NFL mountain is right now.
The defending champion Seattle Seahawks lead the pack at +800, with the Rams close behind at +900. Then come the usual suspects-the Ravens, Bills, Packers, Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, Chargers, and Patriots-all packed in tightly between +1200 and +1500. Houston finds itself in the next tier, tied with the Broncos and, interestingly, the Jaguars.
That last part is worth noting. Houston has better odds than Jacksonville to win both the division and the Super Bowl, but slightly worse odds to win the AFC. It’s a quirky split that reflects how oddsmakers view the Texans’ ceiling: high enough to win the South, but maybe not quite ready to run the gauntlet in January.
Roster Building Will Be Key
The Texans aren’t walking into the offseason flush with cash. In fact, they’re slightly in the red, with -$1.48 million in cap space heading into free agency.
That’ll make things tricky when it comes to adding veteran pieces, but there’s a silver lining-Houston has eight picks in the upcoming draft, including four in the top 70. That’s prime territory to add impact talent on rookie deals, which is exactly how you build around a quarterback still on his rookie contract.
If the Texans can hit on a couple of those picks and find creative ways to navigate the cap, they’ll have a real shot to build on last year’s success. The foundation is there.
The coaching staff is in place. The quarterback is legit.
Now it’s about taking that next step-from playoff team to true contender. Vegas isn’t quite sold yet. But if Houston keeps trending upward, those odds could start shifting in a hurry.