Sean Payton’s latest fourth-down choices have people asking a familiar question: has age made him more conservative?
The Broncos coach turned 63 on Dec. 29, and after Denver’s 23-17 win over the Chargers, that scrutiny only grew. Twice late in the game, Payton passed on fourth-and-short chances - including one from the Los Angeles one-yard line - and settled for field goals. Will Lutz made both kicks, and those six points ended up supplying the margin.
It was the kind of decision set that stands out even more in today’s NFL, where going for it has become the norm instead of the exception. Coaches used to lean on punts and field goals far more often.
But since the analytics wave took hold around 2015, fourth-down aggression has surged, expected points added has become a regular part of the conversation, and the league’s annual attempts have climbed sharply. The high-water mark came in 2024, when teams tried 886 fourth-down plays, or 28 per team.
That shift has changed the job description, too. Every staff now seems to have a game-management coach helping sort through the numbers in these exact spots. And if a coach goes the other direction, the explanation often starts with a version of the same phrase: “I may be old school...”
Payton has never sounded fully converted to the modern fourth-down gospel, and his own comments have fueled that idea. In July, ESPN quoted him as saying, "Play-calling is harder at 62 than at 42. As you get older, maybe you don’t like driving in the rain at night.”
He also laid out how his thinking has changed during a press conference before a Denver playoff game last January.
“The thing that I have to continue to - that changes as you get older - is you still have to be quick,” he said nine months ago. “Like, play just ran, boom, next play," before adding, "When I was younger, we’d run a reverse on the 8-yard line and I’d think nothing of it.
And as you get older, you think about all the ramifications … and so, I have to also remove that. … Those are things that I find that are challenges compared to when I was [37] in New York [as offensive coordinator of the New York Giants] or in my - whatever.”
On Oct. 8, Payton took back play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb after the Broncos’ offense sputtered through a 2-2 start. Then came the Chargers game, and with it, another reminder that Payton still prefers to weigh risk through a cautious lens.
That caution is not new. A look back at his head-coaching track record, which began with the Saints in 2006, shows he has never been a full-throttle disciple of the “go for it” movement.
In New Orleans, his teams were below league average on fourth-down tries except for 2006 and 2007, when the Saints ran a fourth-down play 20 and 25 times, respectively. Over 15 seasons there, his teams were 9-for-16 on fourth down.
When Payton has liked a spot, though, he has shown he can be ruthless about attacking it. His best stretch came from 2016 through 2018, when the Saints ran 46 fourth-down plays and converted 38 of them, an 82.6% success rate.
Since arriving in Denver, the numbers have landed in the middle. The Broncos went for it 20 times, then 22 times, then 20 times in Payton’s first three full seasons, converting 38 of 62 attempts, a 61.3% rate. So far in 2026, Denver is 2-for-3 on fourth-down tries, the second-lowest total in the league, ahead of only the 5-0 San Francisco 49ers, who have tried two.
For now, the question hanging over Denver is simple: is this the version of Payton the Broncos are getting, with fourth-down decisions built more around certainty than bravado? That answer will matter as the offense tries to find its rhythm and Denver keeps chasing the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West.
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