The AFC race for the No. 1 seed already has a clear shape, and the top of the board leans on a familiar mix: elite quarterbacks, sturdy defenses, and schedules that don’t look nearly as punishing as some of the contenders around them. With the 2026 season still ahead, here’s how the conference’s strongest candidates stack up.
Baltimore sits at the top of the list for a reason. The Ravens have reached the playoffs six times since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, and Jackson’s resume already includes two MVP awards and two trips to the No. 1 seed.
Baltimore also benefits from the sixth-easiest strength of schedule in 2026, which only strengthens its case. Derrick Henry gives the offense another hammer, while Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews round out a dangerous group of pass-catchers.
On defense, the Ravens added four-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Trey Hendrickson and still have safety Kyle Hamilton patrolling the secondary. With Jesse Minter taking over as the new coach in the offseason, Baltimore gets a fresh start entering 2026.
Buffalo comes next, and the Bills have been knocking on this door for years. They’ve made the playoffs in each of the past seven seasons, but the No. 1 seed has remained out of reach.
Josh Allen gives them a chance every year, and the offense gets more punch from James Cook on the ground and DJ Moore as a vertical threat. Greg Rousseau and Terrel Bernard headline the defense.
The Bills face the eighth-hardest strength of schedule in 2026, but the bigger storyline may be the new energy Joe Brady brings as coach.
Denver is right in the mix after grabbing the AFC’s top seed last season. The Broncos will try to do it again with Bo Nix directing the offense and the 15th-hardest strength of schedule on their side.
Their secondary is loaded, with Patrick Surtain II offering lockdown coverage and Talanoa Hufanga helping prevent explosive plays. Up front, Denver has a dependable offensive line with Garett Bolles, Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, Quinn Meinerz and Mike McGlinchey.
Sean Payton remains the steady force behind it all, and his reputation as an offensive architect keeps Denver dangerous.
Kansas City lands fourth, but no one is overlooking Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs missed the playoffs last season and saw a 10-year postseason streak end, yet they still have the quarterback who has powered three No. 1 seeds already.
The 2026 schedule is tough, with the fifth-hardest slate in the conference, but Kansas City has overcome plenty with Mahomes at the controls. The offense got a boost from the addition of Kenneth Walker III, and Rashee Rice plus Travis Kelce remain central pieces.
Andy Reid’s quick-hitting pro-spread system also keeps the Chiefs in the conversation.
Houston rounds out the top five. The Texans have made the playoffs in each of the past three seasons since drafting C.
J. Stroud, though they haven’t yet turned that into an AFC No. 1 seed.
They do have the seventh-easiest strength of schedule in 2026, which gives them a real opening. Nico Collins and Tank Dell headline a strong receiver group, and the offseason addition of David Montgomery adds another layer to the backfield.
Stroud leads an offense that already has plenty of talent, and DeMeco Ryans’ defense, built around Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr., gives Houston the kind of edge that can keep it in the race.
Cincinnati and Indianapolis also came close to cracking the top five, but the AFC is packed with quality teams, and that’s what makes this race so tight. Right now, Baltimore looks best positioned to claim the conference’s top seed, though there’s plenty of time for that picture to change before 2026 gets rolling.
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George Paton has made a habit of settling important business before the season gets rolling, and the Broncos recent extension history shows the pattern clearly. Pat Surtain II and Nik Bonitto both got paid in early September, giving Denver a cleaner runway into the fall and helping the front office manage the roster with less noise once games start counting.
Riley Moss looks like he could be next in line for that kind of treatment. The cornerbacks recent improvement has put him in position to factor into Denvers long-term plans, and the Broncos preference for developing their own players makes the timing feel especially relevant now. If Paton is going to get ahead of the market again, this would be the sort of move that keeps the season focused on football and avoids a more complicated cap conversation later. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos Suddenly Have A Troy Franklin Decision That Wont Go Away
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Sean Payton May Not Be Done With Denvers Tight End Room
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The one thread still hanging over the room is whether there could be another move coming, and Payton did not have an update on the possibility of adding Taysom Hill. For now, Denver has its tight end depth chart set, but the way Payton framed the position suggests he is at least open to more options if the right one surfaces. [Read more 🡒]