Since Week 10, the numbers tell a story that might surprise most fans: the New England Patriots defense has been outperforming the Denver Broncos, at least in terms of DVOA. That’s right-while the Broncos have long been lauded for their physical, pressure-heavy defense, it’s the Patriots who’ve quietly climbed the rankings and are now playing some of their best football of the season on that side of the ball.
Let’s break that down.
DVOA: A Deeper Look at Defensive Performance
DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, is one of the more advanced ways to measure how effective a defense really is. It doesn’t just look at yards or points allowed-it adjusts for down, distance, game situation, and opponent quality. For defense, a lower (more negative) DVOA means better performance.
Heading into the second half of the season, Denver’s defense was ranked 5th in DVOA. That’s elite territory.
But as the weeks rolled on, they slipped to 12th. Meanwhile, the Patriots-who started the year near the bottom at 26th-have surged to 7th.
That’s a massive jump, and it’s not just about getting hot at the right time; it’s about getting healthy and executing consistently.
Where Denver Has Slipped
The Broncos’ pass rush, once a dominant force, has cooled off in recent weeks. But the more glaring issue has been against the run.
Since Week 10, Denver has allowed over 100 rushing yards in four games-including 183 yards last week against the Bills. That’s not the kind of trend you want heading into a conference championship, especially when you’re facing a Patriots backfield featuring TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Stopping the run will be priority number one for Denver’s defense on Sunday. If they can’t contain Henderson and Stevenson, it could be a long day in the Mile High City.
AFC Championship Outlook: Defense Could Rule the Day
With Bo Nix sidelined, the Broncos are turning to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback-and that shifts the entire offensive game plan. Denver’s best shot? A low-scoring, grind-it-out slugfest where their defense creates chaos and gives the offense short fields.
That formula worked last week in Buffalo, when Denver forced five turnovers and rode that defensive momentum to a win. Edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, along with interior disruptor Zach Allen, will be key again. They’ll be licking their chops knowing Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye has already fumbled six times in two playoff games-losing three of them.
If the Broncos can get pressure, force turnovers, and keep this game in the teens or low 20s, they’ll give themselves a real shot at punching a ticket to Super Bowl LX.
Offensive Uncertainty for Denver
The offense, even with Nix, has had its struggles. Without him, it’s anyone’s guess what we’ll see from Stidham and company.
The run game isn’t likely to get a boost from J.K. Dobbins, who’s still dealing with a foot injury.
While he’s practiced in a limited capacity, all signs point to him being unavailable for Sunday.
That means RJ Harvey will likely carry the load again. Harvey’s numbers last week weren’t eye-popping-just 20 yards on six carries-but the game script didn’t do him any favors either. If Denver can stay in manageable situations and avoid falling behind early, Harvey could be more involved this time around.
Sean Payton’s Challenge
This is where Sean Payton’s experience and creativity come into play. With a backup quarterback and a banged-up backfield, the Broncos head coach will need to craft a game plan that leans on ball control, field position, and opportunistic defense. It’s not flashy, but it’s the kind of football that can win in January-especially at home.
The Bottom Line
This AFC Championship might not be a shootout, but it has all the makings of a classic playoff battle. Two defenses trending in opposite directions earlier in the year now find themselves on equal footing. The Patriots are surging, the Broncos are scrapping, and both teams know the margin for error is razor-thin.
If Denver’s defense can replicate last week’s turnover-fueled performance and keep the Patriots offense in check, they’ve got a real chance to extend their season. But if Maye and the New England run game get rolling, it could be the Patriots heading to Super Bowl LX.
Either way, expect a physical, hard-fought game where defense takes center stage.