The Green Bay Packers have found their stride at just the right time. After an up-and-down start to the season, they’ve ripped off four straight wins and are suddenly looking like a real threat in a loaded NFC. With back-to-back victories over playoff-caliber teams like the Lions and Bears, this group is no longer flying under the radar.
But now comes a serious gut check. Green Bay heads into the thin air of Denver for a Week 15 showdown against the Broncos - a team that’s had its own rollercoaster of a season but boasts one of the stingiest defenses in football. This one has all the makings of a heavyweight bout, especially when the Packers’ offense takes the field.
Let’s start on the defensive side, where Green Bay might have a slight edge when Denver has the ball. The Packers’ pass rush is built to disrupt, and defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has shown he’s not afraid to mix things up in coverage. That could be a problem for Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix, especially if Green Bay is able to collapse the pocket and force quick decisions.
But the real battle - and likely the deciding factor - will come when Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense line up against Denver’s defense. It’s strength vs. strength.
The Broncos are aggressive, physical, and relentless when it comes to pressuring the quarterback. They blitz on nearly a third of their snaps (31.8%, seventh-most in the league) and generate pressure at a top-five rate (39.5%).
And they’ve got a star on the edge in Nik Bonitto, who’s been a nightmare for opposing tackles. Bonitto is fifth in the NFL in total pressures (61) and tied for third in sacks (12.5). He’s a legit All-Pro candidate and a key reason why Denver’s defense has been able to keep them in games despite offensive inconsistency.
But here’s where things get interesting: Green Bay doesn’t just survive under pressure - they thrive. The Packers’ offensive line has been solid, and while they’re middle of the pack in pressure rate allowed, that stat doesn’t tell the full story. A big part of it is how aggressive this offense has become with Jordan Love at the helm.
Love is letting it rip. He’s top 10 in time to throw (2.89 seconds), eighth in air yards per attempt (8.7), and fourth in deep ball rate (13.7%).
This isn’t a dink-and-dunk operation - Green Bay is pushing the ball downfield, and it’s working. The play-action game (used on 29.2% of dropbacks) is creating windows, and Love is taking full advantage.
Even when the pressure gets home, Love has been remarkably poised. His pressure-to-sack rate sits at just 11%, the second-lowest in the league among quarterbacks with at least 100 pressured dropbacks.
Only Bo Nix - the guy he’ll be facing on Sunday - has been better in that category. Love’s ability to avoid negative plays and keep the offense on schedule has been a major reason for the Packers’ recent surge.
Of course, navigating Denver’s secondary is no small task. This is one of the tightest coverage units in the league, anchored by Patrick Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. According to Next Gen Stats, Denver is one of just three teams in the NFL that allows under three yards of average target separation - joining the Lions and Eagles in that elite tier.
They get there by playing a ton of man coverage - 35% of the time, fourth-most in the league. Most of that comes in Cover 1, but they’ll mix in some Cover 0 blitzes to keep quarterbacks guessing.
It’s a bold strategy, but with Surtain, Riley Moss, and nickel corner Ja’Quan McMillian in the mix, they’ve got the personnel to pull it off. Rookie Jahdae Barron is also starting to find his footing, adding more depth to an already talented group.
But here’s the kicker: Jordan Love has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league against man coverage. He ranks second in EPA per play (+0.49) and third in success rate (53.1%) versus man looks, trailing only Seattle’s Sam Darnold in both categories. That’s a big-time advantage heading into a matchup where Denver is likely to stick with what they do best - playing tight, aggressive man coverage.
Green Bay’s receiving corps only adds to the challenge for Denver. They don’t rely on just one guy, which makes it harder for Surtain to shadow a single target.
Christian Watson will likely draw the toughest assignment, but the Packers have options. Romeo Doubs has been steady, and depending on who’s healthy, they could also roll out Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks - all of whom were limited in Thursday’s practice.
The big question is whether star running back Josh Jacobs will suit up. He’s been dealing with a knee injury and hasn’t practiced this week. If he can’t go, that puts even more pressure on the passing game - but based on the numbers, that might not be such a bad thing for Green Bay.
This is going to be a chess match. The Broncos are built to bring heat and lock down receivers.
The Packers are built to beat the blitz and stretch the field. Something’s got to give.
If Jordan Love continues to play with the confidence and precision he’s shown during this win streak, Green Bay could walk out of Denver with a statement win - and a firmer grip on their place in the NFC playoff race.