Polymarket US is backing away from a prediction market tied to Patrick Mahomes’ return, while another operator is keeping its version of the market live.
The issue centers on whether Mahomes will play in the Kansas City Chiefs’ Sept. 14 game against the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium. Mahomes has checked off all of his rehab goals so far, and he has said his aim is to be ready for Week 1. That has left Broncos fans, and plenty of others watching the market, with a pretty clear view of what they think happens next.
But they won’t be able to turn that belief into a trade on Polymarket US. According to a report from David Purdum of ESPN, the company is withdrawing plans to offer trading on Mahomes’ return after following guidance from a federal regulator.
The question that was initially offered was: "Will Patrick Mahomes participate in the Kansas City Chiefs ' Week 1 regular-season game?" That filing has now been pulled.
The regulatory body involved is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which asked Polymarket and other prediction market operators to remove contracts like the one involving Mahomes in Week 1. Polymarket withdrew the filing to comply and says it will keep working with the agency on staying in line with those rules.
Kalshi, though, is taking a different route. The company is still offering trading on Mahomes, along with other markets tied to when injured players will return. Per the ESPN report, Kalshi did not respond to any CFTC direction on those markets.
The NFL wants the CFTC to go further. Jeff Miller, the league’s executive vice president of affairs, said Wednesday at the NFL owners meeting in Atlanta that he hopes the agency will prohibit these kinds of markets and set up a review process before they go live.
"We hope to get to the place where we have a very efficient system someday if they're legalized in that same way that we can protect the integrity of the competition perfectly," Miller said Wednesday at the NFL owners meeting in Atlanta.
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