As we head into the final four weeks of the NFL regular season, the playoff picture is anything but clear - and that’s exactly what makes the 2025 campaign one of the most compelling in recent memory. Teams we expected to dominate have stumbled, while others, left for dead just a year ago, are suddenly in the thick of the postseason chase.
Four teams that finished with double-digit losses in 2024 - the Patriots, Jaguars, Bears, and Panthers - now boast winning records and real chances to take their divisions. Meanwhile, programs like the Broncos and Seahawks are building on last year’s success and look like they’re built for January football.
And with all that chaos comes one of the most wide-open NFL Coach of the Year races we’ve seen in a long time. From veteran tacticians to first-year head coaches, the list of worthy candidates is deep - and each has a compelling case.
Let’s break down the names you need to know.
Mike Vrabel - New England Patriots
From castoff to contender - that’s the Vrabel story in 2025. After being let go by the Titans following last season, Vrabel returned to New England, the place where he won three Super Bowls as a player.
But this wasn’t a sentimental reunion. This was a full-scale rebuild.
The Patriots were coming off back-to-back 4-13 seasons and had cycled through coaches and quarterbacks with little direction. Vrabel brought structure.
He brought discipline. He brought accountability.
And suddenly, New England is a juggernaut again.
Now sitting at 11-2, riding a 10-game win streak, and leading the AFC East, the Patriots are not just back - they’re battling for the top seed in the conference. Vrabel’s ability to quickly steady the ship and get buy-in from a roster that looked years away from contention is nothing short of remarkable.
Ben Johnson - Chicago Bears
Ben Johnson had options. He could’ve taken a head coaching job in either of the last two offseasons.
But he waited. And when he finally made the jump - leaving Detroit to take over a Bears team that had lost double-digit games four years in a row - it raised some eyebrows.
Early on, it looked like more of the same in Chicago. A 0-2 start and rough outings from Caleb Williams had fans bracing for another long season.
But then, something clicked. The Bears rattled off four straight wins and took nine of their next ten.
A Week 13 upset over the Eagles even gave Chicago the NFC’s best record - at least briefly - before a loss to Green Bay knocked them down a peg. Still, Johnson has this team in the playoff hunt and has helped turn Williams from a struggling rookie into a functional, developing starter. That alone is no small feat.
Mike Macdonald - Seattle Seahawks
Macdonald’s rookie season as a head coach saw the Seahawks go 10-7 and narrowly miss the playoffs. Year two? He’s got Seattle right back in the mix - and this time, they look even more dangerous.
The Seahawks are one of just four teams with 10 wins already, and they’re doing it with balance. The defense is among the league’s most disruptive, and the offense can score with anyone.
They’re still chasing the Rams in the NFC West thanks to a head-to-head loss, but with matchups against both Los Angeles and San Francisco still on the schedule, Macdonald has a chance to guide Seattle not just into the playoffs, but potentially to a division title - and beyond.
Liam Coen - Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville has been a tough nut to crack over the last decade. One playoff appearance in seven years, a carousel of coaches, and a 4-13 record in 2024 meant expectations were low. But Liam Coen didn’t get the memo.
In his first year on the job, Coen has brought stability and a winning formula. The Jaguars have ripped off four straight wins to climb to 9-4 and now sit atop the AFC South.
Coen’s offense has found its rhythm, the defense is holding its own, and most importantly, the culture is changing. Jacksonville isn’t just winning - they’re playing with confidence and purpose. That’s a direct reflection of their head coach.
Sean Payton - Denver Broncos
Sean Payton’s second season in Denver is starting to look like a masterpiece. After a 10-7 record and a playoff berth last year, the Broncos have leveled up. They’ve won 10 straight and are battling for the AFC’s top seed.
What’s made this run so impressive is how they’re doing it. Six of those wins have come via game-winning drives - a testament to Payton’s trust in his young quarterback, Bo Nix, and his ability to make the right calls in crunch time.
The Broncos’ defense has been ferocious, leading the league with 55 sacks and holding opponents to just over 18 points per game. The offense has climbed from the middle of the pack to top-11 in EPA. This team is peaking at the right time, and Payton’s fingerprints are all over it.
Sean McVay - Los Angeles Rams
Four years removed from their last Super Bowl title, the Rams are back in the conversation - and they’re doing it with a complete team.
Offensively, they’re top-10 in total yards, passing yards, and points. Defensively, they’re fifth in takeaways and third in points allowed. They’re also one of just a handful of teams ranking top-five in both offensive and defensive EPA.
That’s not just talent - that’s coaching. McVay has this group playing sharp, physical football on both sides of the ball. With the NFC’s top seed in their hands heading into the final month, the Rams are looking like one of the most well-rounded contenders in the league.
Kyle Shanahan - San Francisco 49ers
Shanahan’s 2025 campaign might be his most impressive yet - and that’s saying something.
The 49ers have been ravaged by injuries. Their starting quarterback missed eight games.
Their All-Pro pass rusher and All-Pro middle linebacker are both out for the year. At various points, they’ve been down eight or more key players.
And yet, here they are - still in the playoff hunt, still winning games, still playing 49ers football.
That’s a testament to Shanahan’s system, his staff, and the depth that he and GM John Lynch have built over nine years of collaboration. They’ve found players who fit, and Shanahan has shown once again that he can adapt and win, no matter who’s on the field.
So, Who’s the Favorite?
There’s no shortage of deserving candidates. You could make a strong case for any of the names above. But if we’re narrowing it down to two, it’s Mike Vrabel and Kyle Shanahan.
Vrabel has orchestrated one of the most stunning turnarounds in recent memory. He inherited a roster that looked like it needed years to rebuild - and turned it into the best team in the league in a matter of months. That doesn’t happen without elite leadership, tactical acumen, and a locker room that believes.
Shanahan, on the other hand, has kept the 49ers afloat despite a tidal wave of injuries. He’s leaned on backups, shifted game plans, and still found ways to win. It’s been a coaching clinic in adaptability and resilience.
Both are worthy. But if New England finishes the job and locks up the AFC’s top seed, it’s hard to argue against Vrabel.
He didn’t just steady the Patriots - he reignited them. And that might be enough to earn him Coach of the Year honors.