The Jacksonville Jaguars are quietly staring down one of the biggest opportunities of their season - maybe even their franchise’s recent history.
At 10-4 heading into Week 16, the Jaguars sit atop the AFC South and currently hold the No. 3 seed in the conference. That alone is a strong place to be, with a home playoff game in their back pocket if the standings hold.
But here's the thing: Jacksonville isn’t just playing for a division crown anymore. They’re in striking distance of something much bigger - the AFC’s No. 1 seed and the first-round bye that comes with it.
Yes, the road is narrow. Yes, they’ll need some help.
But the fact that this is even on the table with three weeks to go? That speaks volumes about how far this team has come.
The Path to the Top
Let’s break down exactly what needs to happen for Jacksonville to leapfrog into that coveted top spot. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the formula is simple on paper - though far from easy in execution:
- The Jaguars need to win out - that means victories over the Broncos (Week 16), Colts (Week 17), and Titans (Week 18).
- The Broncos need to drop at least one of their final two games - either at Kansas City in Week 17 or at home against the Chargers in Week 18.
- **The Patriots need to lose one of their final three games.
**
That’s the roadmap. And while it might seem like threading a needle, let’s not forget: this is the NFL. Strange things happen in December.
The Broncos Loom Large
Of all the moving pieces, Jacksonville’s own schedule might be the biggest hurdle - and it starts immediately with a heavyweight matchup against the AFC’s current No. 1 seed, the Denver Broncos. That game is more than just a playoff preview.
It’s a tone-setter. A win over Denver would not only keep the Jaguars’ No. 1 seed hopes alive, it would also send a loud message across the conference: Jacksonville’s not just happy to be here - they’re here to contend.
The Colts and Titans are division rivals, and those games are never easy, especially when playoff positioning is on the line. But the Broncos game? That’s the one that could swing the entire AFC playoff picture.
A Season That’s Already Exceeded Expectations
Let’s be real - not many had Jacksonville in this position back in September. This was supposed to be a team still figuring things out, still building.
But here they are, not just leading their division but in the mix for the top seed in the conference. That’s a testament to how much this group has grown over the course of the season - and how dangerous they could be if they keep trending upward.
There’s still work to be done, and the margin for error is razor-thin. But the fact that the Jaguars are even in this conversation in late December? That’s a win in itself - and a sign of just how far this team has come.
Now comes the hard part: finishing the job.