With the Broncos a little more than a month from the start of the NFL season, projecting rookie production is more than just a numbers game. It’s really a snapshot of how Denver sees its new class fitting into a roster that, after an offseason of decisions, is bringing back all but one starter from last year for 2026.
These projections are built with a specific lens. Injuries are not part of the equation, and the numbers are based on the last three years of production from players who held each role. So if a rookie is expected to be the fifth receiver, the model uses what the fifth receiver spot has produced over the past three seasons, including any games in which another player stepped in when the original option missed time.
That framework produces a pretty clear picture of how Denver’s draft class could be used if things go according to plan.
Derrick Harmon is projected to settle into a rotational role on the defensive line, with the possibility of eventually becoming a starter. Even then, the workload is expected to be limited. The Broncos will need multiple players to help replace what John Franklin-Meyers brought to the defense, and Harmon is expected to be part of that mix.
His projected line: 2.5 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, and a 40% share of defensive snaps. The numbers may not jump off the page, but the expectation is that he’ll make his impact against the run as much as through the stat sheet.
At running back, RJ Harvey is projected as the third option behind J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, as long as they stay healthy. The injury note matters here because of Dobbins’ history, and the article makes clear that Harvey would likely blow past these numbers if he gets more work.
Still, the projection is based on what the third back spot has produced in recent years, with a little extra added because of Harvey’s ability. The stat line: 15-20 catches for 125-150 yards and three touchdowns.
On the offensive line, the hope is simple: stay healthy and keep the backups off the field. Under that assumption, Casey doesn’t play at all.
The tight end room brings a more developmental angle. Joly is projected as the fourth tight end, and even without injuries factored in, there should be a limited role available for him.
The Broncos want to get some receiving ability out of the position while also developing him as a possible Evan Engram replacement after this season. The projected production: 15-20 catches for 125-150 yards and three touchdowns.
Two of Denver’s day three picks are headed toward the practice squad in these projections. The safety selection is viewed as a developmental piece, someone the Broncos can let grow and learn the position with a better shot at the roster next year.
Bentley is in the same category, with the team treating him much like they did Caleb Lohner a year ago. The Broncos like the potential, but they want time for him to develop.
Murdock is the late-round name with the clearest chance to flash in a small sample. The projection has him playing fewer than five games, logging under 5% of the defensive snaps, and finishing with fewer than 10 tackles while forcing two fumbles. Denver has leaned on depth and practice-squad linebackers later in seasons before, mostly on special teams, and Murdock’s ability to create turnovers could earn him a look.
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