In a weekend packed with pivotal moments, few decisions stood out more than what unfolded in the second quarter of the Broncos-Patriots playoff clash. Denver, up 7-0 and driving, found itself with a 4th-and-1 deep in New England territory.
The choice? Take the chip-shot field goal and build a 10-point cushion, or roll the dice, go for it, and potentially seize a commanding 14-0 lead.
Sean Payton chose aggression. He went for it.
And it backfired.
The Broncos failed to convert, and that moment became a turning point-not just in the game, but in the narrative of Denver’s playoff exit. It would be the last time they’d get inside the Patriots’ 30-yard line. The second half brought a blizzard that turned the field into a snow globe, and with offensive traction all but gone, the missed opportunity loomed even larger.
FOX analyst and former Pro Bowl tight end Greg Olsen didn’t mince words in the aftermath. He pointed out what many had been thinking-but with a twist. The analytics, often blamed when aggressive calls go wrong, actually supported kicking the field goal.
“The irony here is the ‘analytics’ actually said KICK!!” Olsen posted. “But that’s not as fun I guess.”
So this wasn’t a case of Payton leaning on the numbers and losing. This was Payton trusting his gut-and going against the data.
Now, there’s something to be said for coaching instinct. Every head coach in the NFL has moments where they have to make a call that’s more about feel than formula.
And in a vacuum, going for it on 4th-and-1 isn’t outrageous. But context is everything.
Denver had a backup quarterback under center. Their defense was dominating.
And the snowstorm was already beginning to make its presence felt.
In that moment, the smart play-the one backed by analytics, situational awareness, and common sense-was to take the points.
A 10-0 lead in a home playoff game with the weather deteriorating and your defense playing lights out? That’s a position of strength.
It forces the opposing offense to press. It changes the play-calling calculus.
And it gives your team a margin for error, especially when your offense is led by a backup QB.
Instead, Denver came away with nothing. And as the game wore on, that decision aged poorly.
The Patriots clawed their way back and ultimately won by three. A field goal in that second-quarter sequence might’ve been enough to force overtime-or even seal the win.
This wasn’t about being too aggressive. It was about being aggressive at the wrong time.
Payton’s call will be dissected all offseason, and rightfully so. Coaches live and die by these decisions.
And while hindsight is always 20/20, this wasn’t a complex scenario clouded by conflicting data. The numbers said kick.
The situation said kick. The weather said kick.
Payton said go.
And now, the Broncos are going home.