After a pair of statement wins, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are set to meet in the AFC Championship Game-marking the third time in the last 15 years these two storied franchises will square off with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. In a conference that’s been dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs in recent years, it’s the Broncos and Patriots who have quietly reasserted themselves as playoff mainstays. One of them is about to add another conference crown to their legacy.
But Denver’s path to this point hasn’t been without turbulence. The Broncos pulled off a gutsy win last weekend, only to be hit with the gut punch that quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury.
That news shifted the narrative almost instantly. Suddenly, the AFC title was presumed to be New England’s to lose.
But don’t expect the Broncos to roll over-especially not in front of their home crowd.
Despite being pegged as one of the biggest home underdogs in conference championship history, the Broncos aren’t blinking. They’ve worn the underdog label with pride all season, and they’re not about to back down now. Here’s why Denver still has a real shot to knock off the Patriots on Sunday afternoon:
3. Poor offensive lines don’t travel well-especially to Denver
It’s one of those old-school football truths for a reason: shaky offensive lines tend to get exposed on the road. And after last week, “shaky” might be putting it kindly when describing the Patriots’ front five. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye was under siege for much of the game, constantly pressured and coughing up the ball under duress.
That’s music to the ears of a Broncos defense that’s been heating up at just the right time. They forced five turnovers and racked up three sacks in their last outing, and their front seven is built to feast on offensive lines that can’t hold up. Playing at altitude, with the crowd behind them, this is a matchup that heavily favors Denver’s defense.
2. Denver has been a house of horrors for the Patriots
History doesn’t win football games, but it sure can cast a long shadow. And when it comes to playoff games in Denver, the Patriots have plenty of bad memories. From Champ Bailey’s near pick-six to Bradley Roby’s game-sealing pass breakup on a two-point try, the Broncos have made life miserable for New England in the postseason.
The Patriots have never won a playoff game in Denver. That’s not just trivia-it’s a mental hurdle.
The altitude, the crowd, the history-it all adds up. And with a rookie quarterback leading the charge, those ghosts could get loud in a hurry.
1. Why not the Broncos?
Why can’t Denver win this game? Yes, Jarrett Stidham is stepping in for Bo Nix, and yes, he’s a backup for a reason.
But this isn’t uncharted territory in the NFL. Teams have won playoff games with backup quarterbacks before-especially when they’re backed by a defense as stingy and opportunistic as Denver’s.
Let’s not forget how close the Patriots came to letting last week’s game slip away. If not for an all-time rough outing from the Texans’ quarterback, we might be talking about a different matchup right now. New England didn’t exactly dominate-they survived.
And Denver? They’ve shown they can win ugly.
They’ve shown they can win close. They’ve shown they can take a punch and come back swinging.
Add in the potential return of JK Dobbins to help stabilize the offense, and suddenly this doesn’t look like a mismatch-it looks like a fight.
Stidham might not be Bo Nix, but Sean Payton has made it clear: he trusts his guy. And so far, Payton’s track record in Denver has earned him the benefit of the doubt. If Stidham can manage the game, avoid turnovers, and let the defense do what it does best, the Broncos have a very real path to the Super Bowl.
They’re underdogs. They’re doubted.
They’re banged up. And they’re still standing.
Why not them?