There’s a pattern emerging in the NFL, and it’s not a pretty one for teams staring down the barrel of next year’s salary cap. Six of the seven franchises currently projected to be in the red for 2026 - the Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, Dolphins, Saints, and Browns - are all on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture. And unless something dramatic changes, none of them are real contenders for the Lombardi Trophy this February.
Let’s zero in on Dallas, where the financial picture is as bleak as the team’s postseason hopes. The Cowboys are a staggering $47.9 million over the projected cap.
That’s not just a red flag - it’s a flashing neon sign that says, “Fix this now.” And with three games left in the regular season and a 6-7-1 record, the margin for error is gone.
Every decision from here on out needs to be about smart roster construction and long-term flexibility.
Which brings us to George Pickens.
The Cowboys acquired Pickens in a midseason trade with Pittsburgh, hoping he could be a dynamic complement to CeeDee Lamb. But since arriving in Dallas, Pickens has been more ghost than game-changer.
In back-to-back losses - first to Detroit, then to Minnesota - he’s been nearly invisible. Against the Vikings, he managed just three catches for 33 yards.
Not exactly the kind of production that screams “pay me.”
And that’s the heart of the issue. With Lamb already commanding top-tier money at wide receiver and Dak Prescott on a hefty quarterback deal, the Cowboys simply can’t afford to hand Pickens a contract extension in the same ballpark. Doing so would undo the cap space flexibility they thought they were creating when they traded Micah Parsons to Green Bay earlier this year - a shocking move that was supposed to reset the roster and open up new possibilities.
Instead, paying Pickens would put them right back in the same financial bind. It’s the kind of move that prioritizes name value over impact, and that’s a trap Dallas has fallen into before.
To be clear, this isn’t about whether Pickens is a talented player. He’s shown flashes.
But the Cowboys need more than flashes. They need reliable production, especially when the stakes are high - and that hasn’t been there.
Meanwhile, the defense has been asked to carry more of the load, and that’s where the team should be investing its money.
Take Quinnen Williams, for example. Dallas gave up a first-round pick to bring him in from the Jets before the deadline, and he’s delivered.
He’s disrupted the run game, pressured quarterbacks, and brought a physical edge to the front line. His contract has just $5 million guaranteed left, and he’ll likely want a new deal soon - but unlike Pickens, he’s earned that conversation.
You can find wide receivers like Pickens in the draft. You don’t easily find guys who can do what Williams does in the trenches.
Around the league, we’re seeing the consequences of top-heavy roster construction. The Bengals are out of the playoffs despite massive investments in Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.
The Seahawks, sitting at 11 wins, made the tough call to trade DK Metcalf and build around Jaxon Smith-Njigba instead. Pittsburgh passed on pairing Metcalf with Pickens and sent the latter to Dallas.
These are teams making hard choices based on cap reality - and they’re better off for it.
The Chiefs are another cautionary tale. Yes, they’ve won three Super Bowls with Patrick Mahomes, but now they’re $43.77 million over the cap and eliminated from playoff contention after one of the franchise’s worst Sundays in a decade. Even Kansas City, with all its recent success, has to pay the price eventually.
Minnesota is third on the over-the-cap list at $35.9 million, but they’re getting more bang for their buck. Their defense just shut down Prescott, Lamb, and Pickens, and they might have something in rookie quarterback J.J.
McCarthy. They’re not perfect, but they’re trending in a better direction than Dallas.
So what should the Cowboys do with Pickens? The franchise tag is a smart option - it buys time without a long-term commitment and opens the door for a potential trade.
There are teams out there who haven’t paid a wideout big money yet and might be willing to roll the dice. That’s a better outcome than locking into another bloated deal that limits roster flexibility.
Bottom line: the Cowboys need to start following the signs. This season has shown that bloated receiver contracts and unbalanced rosters don’t win championships. If Dallas wants to build a contender, it starts with making disciplined, forward-thinking decisions - and that means saying no to a big payday for George Pickens.