The Broncos are 4-2, favored on the road, and still trying to find any real rhythm on offense. That’s the strange setup heading into Week 7 against an Arizona team that just pulled off a huge upset over the Rams. Denver has survived with defense and little else, and that formula is being tested again in a game that points toward another tight, low-scoring afternoon.
Bo Nix has not looked like himself through six weeks of the 2026 season, but Sean Payton may see this matchup as the chance to get his young quarterback moving early. The problem is that Denver’s offense has been one of the league’s weakest, sitting 29th in success rate. The Broncos have still stacked up wins because the defense keeps bailing them out, forcing 10 turnovers while allowing just 5.0 yards per play.
That defensive edge has held even with Pat Surtain II missing the last two games and Talanoa Hufanga out in Week 6. Denver has continued to play like one of the NFL’s best units on that side of the ball, and the numbers back it up. The Broncos rank sixth in opponent EPA per play and fifth in opponent success rate, even after facing a brutal stretch of the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers and Seahawks.
Arizona, meanwhile, looks better than a lot of people expected after that win in Los Angeles, but the numbers still paint a messy picture. The Cardinals are dead last in the NFL in net yards per play at -1.4.
Their offense has had moments with Jacoby Brissett under center, and the team ranks ninth in success rate and 15th in EPA/Play on offense, but it hasn’t translated into consistent scoring. Arizona has scored 21 or fewer points in three of its six games.
That makes this a tricky spot for bettors trying to decide whether Denver can win by margin, or whether the better play is the total. Iain MacMillan of SI Betting is backing the Broncos to win and cover despite the sluggish offense, noting the run of opponents Denver has already faced and how strong the defense has been through it all.
Still, the under has plenty going for it. Denver’s offense has been a weekly headache, and the under has hit in five of the Broncos’ six games.
The Broncos have scored 23 or fewer points in five of those contests and 20 or fewer in four. Against a Cardinals defense that remains one of the league’s weaker units, Denver may have a path to a win, but not necessarily to an explosion.
The spread has stayed at Broncos -4.5 even after Arizona’s upset of the Rams, and that leaves this game sitting right where it started: with Denver favored, Arizona capable, and the scoreboard likely not lighting up.
In Other News...
Broncos Trade Deadline Call May Come Down To These Next 3 Games
With three games left before the Nov. 10 NFL trade deadline, the Broncos are still sorting out whether their roster needs justify a real swing or whether the group in place can keep growing into the season. The biggest questions sit on offense, where running back and the interior line remain the spots most likely to get extra attention as Denver weighs how aggressive to be.
The next three weeks will go a long way toward shaping that decision, especially after a stretch of difficult opponents that has made it harder to separate temporary issues from more lasting ones. If the Broncos keep trending upward, patience could win out. If the offense stalls again, the front office may have to decide whether to stay the course or chase help at a position where the market could get interesting. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos Head To Arizona With AFC West Pressure Already Rising
The Broncos head to Arizona with more than just another road game in front of them. Denvers current run has tightened the margins in the AFC West and added some extra weight to a matchup that also carries a chance to keep the teams winning streak over the Cardinals intact. With the playoff picture and division pressure both in play, this is the kind of game that can quietly shape the rest of the season.
There is also a little individual history hanging over Sunday, with several Broncos sitting near career or franchise milestones heading into the matchup. The defense has been the bigger storyline lately, too, and its recent production has put Denver in range of a notable team feat if it can keep bringing the heat against Arizona. In a race this crowded, even the small milestones can end up saying a lot about where a team is headed. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos Secondary Suddenly Has A Good Problem At Corner
Patrick Surtain II was back on the practice field this week, giving Denver a timely boost as it starts sorting through its cornerback plans for Arizona. He is still listed as questionable for the upcoming game, while Riley Moss has been cleared to return to the starting lineup after working back from a rib injury, adding another layer to a secondary that has handled the recent stretch well.
The encouraging part for the Broncos is that they are not scrambling for answers. Jahdae Barron and Kris Abrams-Draine have helped the group hold up in recent weeks, which gives the coaching staff some flexibility if it wants to be careful with Surtain. With Kansas City looming after this one, Denver may decide there is value in letting its top corner wait another week before returning. [Read more 🡒]