The Denver Broncos are 12-3 with two games left in the regular season, riding high in the standings and looking every bit like a playoff contender. But if you’ve been watching closely - not just the wins, but how they’re happening - you might be feeling a bit of déjà vu.
Because while the record is stronger than last year’s 10-7 finish, the late-season warning signs are starting to look all too familiar. Especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Let’s be clear: this defense has been the backbone of the Broncos’ identity for two straight seasons. Under Vance Joseph, Denver’s D has consistently played the role of the enforcer - tough in the red zone, opportunistic on third down, and capable of delivering game-changing sacks when needed. It’s a bend-but-don’t-break unit, and for much of the year, it hasn’t broken.
But lately? The cracks are showing.
Sunday’s loss to Jacksonville - a 34-point outburst by Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars - wasn’t just a bad day at the office. It was the latest chapter in a growing trend.
Jacksonville went 8-for-15 on third down and looked entirely too comfortable moving the ball in Denver’s house. And while one off game in a long season can be forgiven, the numbers suggest this wasn’t an outlier - it’s part of a pattern.
Over the Broncos’ first 11 games, the defense was lights out. They gave up just 274.4 yards per game, allowed only 17.2 first downs per contest, and held opponents to a stingy 17.45 points per game. That’s elite-level stuff.
But in the last four games? The yardage allowed has ballooned to 339 per game.
First downs allowed have jumped to 21.75. And most glaringly, opponents are scoring 25.75 points per game - more than a full touchdown increase.
It’s not just a 2025 problem, either. This same slide happened in 2024.
Through the first 11 games of last season, Denver’s defense was once again among the league’s best: 289.4 yards allowed per game, 18 first downs, and just 16.6 points surrendered on average. But down the stretch - including a playoff loss to Buffalo and a meaningless Week 18 game against a watered-down Chiefs squad - those numbers took a nosedive.
Over the final seven games, the Broncos gave up 382.7 yards, 22.15 first downs, and 22.7 points per game. And if you toss out that soft finale against Kansas City?
The numbers get even uglier: 430 yards, 25 first downs, and 26.6 points per game.
That’s not just regression - that’s a collapse.
Third down defense tells a similar story. This season, Denver has been solid overall, holding teams to a 33.5% conversion rate.
But in the last three games, that number has spiked to 45.95%. And again, the 2024 season followed suit: a respectable 38.25% third down rate across the season, but a late-season surge to 43.24% in the final three games.
So what does all this mean?
Simply put, the Broncos defense has a troubling habit of fading when the stakes get higher. Whether it’s fatigue, injuries, or opponents cracking the code on Joseph’s scheme, something shifts as the calendar turns to December. And with the playoffs looming, that’s a red flag that can’t be ignored.
The good news? There’s still time.
Two games remain in the regular season. Two chances to get back on track, to tighten the screws, and to prove that this version of the Broncos won’t repeat last year’s ending.
Because if Denver wants to make real noise in January, the defense has to be more than just good - it has to be dependable when it matters most. Right now, that’s still a question mark.